3 ms·

>Money printing on a large scale leads to massive inflation I know this is a pretty popular opinion but if you look at the past 15 years, this has been proven

by rtpg 13y ago

>Money printing on a large scale leads to massive inflation I know this is a pretty popular opinion but if you look at the past 15 years, this has been proven to not hold very often.

EliRivers 13y ago
The money printing we see in much of the west is implemented differently to how it was implemented in, for example, Zimbabwe. It's also not what I'd call large scale, but it's certainly larger than normal. It takes a much longer route to the hands of the ordinary man (and indeed, often never does - it gets printed and the same day locked away again), and on the way seems to get locked inside ridiculous house price inflation, and stock markets doing far better than they should. I complain about this, but should state that I dumped as much as I could into stocks when interest rates went to near zero and the printing presses started up, and I've done very well out of listed companies that really aren't doing much better than they were before. It all has to go somewhere - it's just not going into bread.
- dualogy 13y ago
  > It all has to go somewhere - it's just not going into bread. for the time being. On a related note, a globally deployed national currency used for savings, trade and reserves on a world-wide scale for about half a century now is historically kind of a first. "Price inflation resulting from quantity inflation" might well take a lot longer in the case of USD than any other national currency ever before took. What ultimately leads to the massive "wheel-barrow hyperinflations" is an exponentially exploding collective loss of confidence, as in "dropping by the minute". In fact, at this point the "famous" (as in Zimbabwe, Weimar etc.) absolutely massive printing at the late stages is no longer the cause but the result of that utter confidence loss. This is probably more likely to happen earlier/faster in a national-currency-setting when exchange rates from trade with say your neighboring countries and their "stabler" currencies indicate a gradual loss of confidence first on their part, before that spreads to the locals? But the USD has been / used to be / still to a great deal is "the yardstick" for all other currencies. "The US (Treasury / Fed) does not hold reserves against its currency" (apart from some Forex playmoney, those aren't reserves as such) -- whereas every other Central Bank does hold such "reserves against their currency", and those reserves are to a great degree USD (or USD-denominated debt "assets" aka treasuries etc.) as far as non-metallic reserve "assets" are concerned. Not exclusively USD but overwhelmingly so. So that "absolutely massive, all-engulfing" chain-reaction-like global total loss of confidence should require a LOT more damage by USD managers than a couple quantitative easings and some fresh Fed cash for the ever-expanding USG and to bail out TBTF banks (aka ensure nominal performance of the financial system and hence all savings/pensions/deposits/insurances etc. regardless of "eventual real" performance).

by rtpg 13y ago

>Money printing on a large scale leads to massive inflation I know this is a pretty popular opinion but if you look at the past 15 years, this has been proven to not hold very often.

EliRivers 13y ago

The money printing we see in much of the west is implemented differently to how it was implemented in, for example, Zimbabwe. It's also not what I'd call large scale, but it's certainly larger than normal. It takes a much longer route to the hands of the ordinary man (and indeed, often never does - it gets printed and the same day locked away again), and on the way seems to get locked inside ridiculous house price inflation, and stock markets doing far better than they should. I complain about this, but should state that I dumped as much as I could into stocks when interest rates went to near zero and the printing presses started up, and I've done very well out of listed companies that really aren't doing much better than they were before. It all has to go somewhere - it's just not going into bread.

dualogy 13y ago
> It all has to go somewhere - it's just not going into bread. for the time being. On a related note, a globally deployed national currency used for savings, trade and reserves on a world-wide scale for about half a century now is historically kind of a first. "Price inflation resulting from quantity inflation" might well take a lot longer in the case of USD than any other national currency ever before took. What ultimately leads to the massive "wheel-barrow hyperinflations" is an exponentially exploding collective loss of confidence, as in "dropping by the minute". In fact, at this point the "famous" (as in Zimbabwe, Weimar etc.) absolutely massive printing at the late stages is no longer the cause but the result of that utter confidence loss. This is probably more likely to happen earlier/faster in a national-currency-setting when exchange rates from trade with say your neighboring countries and their "stabler" currencies indicate a gradual loss of confidence first on their part, before that spreads to the locals? But the USD has been / used to be / still to a great deal is "the yardstick" for all other currencies. "The US (Treasury / Fed) does not hold reserves against its currency" (apart from some Forex playmoney, those aren't reserves as such) -- whereas every other Central Bank does hold such "reserves against their currency", and those reserves are to a great degree USD (or USD-denominated debt "assets" aka treasuries etc.) as far as non-metallic reserve "assets" are concerned. Not exclusively USD but overwhelmingly so. So that "absolutely massive, all-engulfing" chain-reaction-like global total loss of confidence should require a LOT more damage by USD managers than a couple quantitative easings and some fresh Fed cash for the ever-expanding USG and to bail out TBTF banks (aka ensure nominal performance of the financial system and hence all savings/pensions/deposits/insurances etc. regardless of "eventual real" performance).