Why don't you enlighten us all as to the workings of "basic probabilities", since you have clearly applied them in arriving at your conclusions. Perhaps you ca

Why don't you enlighten us all as to the workings of "basic probabilities", since you have clearly applied them in arriving at your conclusions. Perhaps you can start by identifying all of the variables that you considered in assessing the probability of each scenario, then move on to providing us with the statistical probability that you calculated for each of those variables.