3 ms·
Sure, given a real valued random variable, it has a cumulative distribution. If that distribution is differentiable, then the random variable also has a density
by graycat 13y ago
Sure, given a real valued random variable,
it has a cumulative distribution.
If that distribution is differentiable,
then the random variable also has a
density (distribution). Fine. Alas,
that doesn't mean that in practice
we should try to find what the
distribution is!
Actually, in practice, it's generally
difficult to know with much accuracy
what a distribution is. Then, for the
OP, in practice it's much more difficult
to know much about the tails or when
they are fat or not or if fat how fat.
The OP wants to claim that the normal
distribution applies to heights of
people. I can believe that this is
only roughly true!
Actually, the usual way we come to
a normal distribution is from
the central limit theorem (CLT); in practice
we want something like the
mechanism of the CLT to apply.
When do we get the CLT? Sure: If
for some positive integer n
our random variable Y is the
sum, divided by the square root of n,
of n independent, identically
distributed (i.i.d.) samples
of some distribution with, say,
a mean and a finite variance.
If n is 12, then can start to entertain
normality if don't want accuracy in the
tails. If want high accuracy in the
tails of the normal distribution from
the CLT, then I'd recommend some careful
work and otherwise not trust the
accuracy.
A place where have a better shot at
getting accuracy in a tail is
the exponential distribution.
The leading case is: Suppose
we have a Geiger counter that
goes "click" when it detects
a radioactive decay. If the
click rate is low so that
the chances of two or more decays
giving only one click are low,
and real random variable T is
the time until the next click,
then under usual situations in practice
T will
have quite accurately exponential distribution.
More generally, the stochastic process
of such clicks is a Poisson process
and an example of an arrival process.
Well with weak assumptions, for positive
integer n, the sum of n
independent arrival processes
approaches a Poisson process
as n approaches infinity.
This result is the renewal
theorem with a proof in
W. Feller's volume II.
An example of a use of the
renewal theorem is arrivals
at a Web site. So, for each
person on the planet there is
an arrival process for that
person at that site.
If assume that the people
are independent, then the
Web site sees the sum of those
arrivals and should see,
over intervals of time much
shorter than one day,
a good approximation to a Poisson process.
So, that's some 'applied probability'
where we might work with
tails.
Mostly in applied probability,
just f'get about accuracy in the tails!