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We're in the deepest recession in half a century, and people are cutting back, and from ONE DATAPOINT, effectively, we're supposed to believe that it's the "end
by tjic 17y ago
We're in the deepest recession in half a century, and people are cutting back, and from ONE DATAPOINT, effectively, we're supposed to believe that it's the "end of the car culture" ?
> To sort this out, I built a regression model that accounts for both gas prices and the unemployment rate in a given month and attempts to predict from this data how much the typical American will drive.
Note that this model is tuned using 15 years of data, and yet we're in a mini Black Swan event that happens every 50 or 100 years.
OF COURSE there's divergence of reality and model.
I'm amazed that anyone can take this seriously.
- rms 17y agoBut this really is part of a trend seperate from the recession. People are leaving the exurbs and moving back to cities.