2 ms·
They didn't provide very much info on methodology here, which I suppose is acceptable for a lay article. Still, it makes it impossible to make any real use of
by amalcon 18y ago
They didn't provide very much info on methodology here, which I suppose is acceptable for a lay article. Still, it makes it impossible to make any real use of this information. Did they compare statistics during the playoffs against aggregate statistics for the same teams over the entire year? Did they only use the middle 50% (or some other arbitrary portion) of the season, to remove early-season unfamiliarity and the effects of late-season "lame duck" teams? Did they only compare stats for games between teams that reached the playoffs (thus ensuring that they are at least vaguely similar caliber)? Did they discount elimination games, where of course the teams will be less worried about being tired and aching tomorrow, because there might not be a game tomorrow?
A better way to do a study like this would be to compare non-elimination games between the same two teams, in the playoffs and out. Unfortunately, you lose a large portion of your sample size when you eliminate variables in this way.
It would also be better to go the other way: do various regressions to figure out which stats tend to change in the playoffs, and then ask actual basketball players and coaches if it's plausible that those stats could be correlated with effort. It's not perfect, by any means, but it's better than picking some stats that we think should be correlated with effort and seeing if they change in the playofs.