4 ms·

To provide a little bit of historical perspective on NYC's murders: 1990: 2,262 1993: 1,927 1998: 629 2001: 649 2012: 417 2013: 145 YTD ht

by chaz 13y ago

To provide a little bit of historical perspective on NYC's murders: 1990: 2,262 1993: 1,927 1998: 629 2001: 649 2012: 417 2013: 145 YTD http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cscity.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/...

larrys 13y ago
Would be interesting if numbers were available to see what happened in terms of the number of people assigned to homicide division. Did they remain the same (meaning they can spend more time say on each crime) or did they go down?
- jbooth 13y ago
  The homicide division doesn't prevent murders, they solve them. People generally credit methodology changes under the term 'community policing' for the turn-around. Basically, the idea is that rather than just riding in, cracking skulls, slapping cuffs on once a night, engage with the community more, address more stuff like noise complaints and vandalism, to build relations with the community and coincidentally crack down on the same troublemakers a lot of the time. In theory (and in practice), it turns out to be more effective at stopping crime from happening than the deterrent factor of riding in lights blazing every night. (This isn't to say that NYC cops are perfect or that stop-and-frisk doesn't happen all the damn time, just outlining the general theory behind community policing)
  - jn 13y ago
    > The homicide division doesn't prevent murders, they solve them. I don't think larrys was suggesting otherwise, just that it'd be interesting to know if the homicide division was reduced in line with the homicide rate. Similarly, what has happened to the percentage of cases being solved and successfully prosecuted? > 'community policing' [...] turns out to be more effective at stopping crime It's known as "policing by consent" by the British, where officers are meant to follow the "Peelian Principles" from 1829 [1] Of particular relevance here: 2. The ability of the police to perform their duties is dependent upon public approval of police actions. 3. Police must secure the willing co-operation of the public in voluntary observance of the law to be able to secure and maintain the respect of the public. 4. The degree of co-operation of the public that can be secured diminishes proportionately to the necessity of the use of physical force. 9. The test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with it. [1] http://independentpolicecommission.org.uk/peelian-principles http://independentpolicecommission.org.uk/peelian-principles
    - larrys 13y ago
      "I don't think larrys was suggesting otherwise, just that it'd be interesting to know " Exactly. My feeling is that under the "work expands to fill the time available for completion" Parkinson's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law we would find that the size of that division didn't drop as much as it could (ratio wise) since a detective can always follow more leads. And if those leads led to arrests the labor would be justified. Without regard to whether the extra work was the reason or not. All this of course assumes also that the staffing level was appropriate to begin with. No way to really know that. After solving crimes in NY Metro is not the same as solving crimes in a different geographic area (travel time or other support resources could be different).
  - lostlogin 13y ago
    The articles coverage of stop and frisk is bizarre, the police talk about how effective it's been despite halving the rate at which they do it. This would indicate that stop and frisk has a near zero effect on the murder rate.
jacobr 13y ago
You need to consider all improvements in trauma care since 1990. Some victims that would have died in 1990 would make it today.
- bluedino 13y ago
  Does anyone have the #'s for say, shootings?
  - epc 13y ago
    From the linked PDF: Shooting Incidents YTD 2012: 581, 2013: 423 Shooting victims YTD 2012: 685, 2013: 486
    - zzzz123 13y ago
      perhaps aiming abilities decreased? due to drugs?
- krschultz 13y ago
  If you read the linked PDF, murders are down 83% while shooting victims are down 81% compared to 1993. Meanwhile, robberies are down 79%, rapes are down 54%, assaults are down 52%, etc. Everything is down 50-80% in the last 20 years, not just deaths. I don't think the facts support your narrative.
- rdouble 13y ago
  A friend of mine is a specialist trauma doctor in NYC and claims to only work 1.5 hours per day because hardly anything happens.
danvk 13y ago
Do you have numbers from before 1990? The late 80s and early 90s were a particularly violent time in NYC.
- Zigurd 13y ago
  The 70's were no picnic neither.
  - mc32 13y ago
    I knew relatives who lived in and around Canarsie (Brooklyn) in the 40's --there were more Euro-immigrants there than now. One died from a robber slitting veins in his arms, the other from a stabbing (by strangers in both cases). So it seems to have been a voilent city for much of its history, not just something which came after the WWII boom subsided and sliding into the socio-economic issues of the 60s and 70s. I'm glad to see the city enter a new era of relative peacefulness. Now, I'd like to see the infrastructure upgraded to befit a great modern metropolis.

by chaz 13y ago

larrys 13y ago

Would be interesting if numbers were available to see what happened in terms of the number of people assigned to homicide division. Did they remain the same (meaning they can spend more time say on each crime) or did they go down?

jbooth 13y ago
The homicide division doesn't prevent murders, they solve them. People generally credit methodology changes under the term 'community policing' for the turn-around. Basically, the idea is that rather than just riding in, cracking skulls, slapping cuffs on once a night, engage with the community more, address more stuff like noise complaints and vandalism, to build relations with the community and coincidentally crack down on the same troublemakers a lot of the time. In theory (and in practice), it turns out to be more effective at stopping crime from happening than the deterrent factor of riding in lights blazing every night. (This isn't to say that NYC cops are perfect or that stop-and-frisk doesn't happen all the damn time, just outlining the general theory behind community policing)
- jn 13y ago
  > The homicide division doesn't prevent murders, they solve them. I don't think larrys was suggesting otherwise, just that it'd be interesting to know if the homicide division was reduced in line with the homicide rate. Similarly, what has happened to the percentage of cases being solved and successfully prosecuted? > 'community policing' [...] turns out to be more effective at stopping crime It's known as "policing by consent" by the British, where officers are meant to follow the "Peelian Principles" from 1829 [1] Of particular relevance here: 2. The ability of the police to perform their duties is dependent upon public approval of police actions. 3. Police must secure the willing co-operation of the public in voluntary observance of the law to be able to secure and maintain the respect of the public. 4. The degree of co-operation of the public that can be secured diminishes proportionately to the necessity of the use of physical force. 9. The test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with it. [1] http://independentpolicecommission.org.uk/peelian-principles http://independentpolicecommission.org.uk/peelian-principles
  - larrys 13y ago
    "I don't think larrys was suggesting otherwise, just that it'd be interesting to know " Exactly. My feeling is that under the "work expands to fill the time available for completion" Parkinson's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law we would find that the size of that division didn't drop as much as it could (ratio wise) since a detective can always follow more leads. And if those leads led to arrests the labor would be justified. Without regard to whether the extra work was the reason or not. All this of course assumes also that the staffing level was appropriate to begin with. No way to really know that. After solving crimes in NY Metro is not the same as solving crimes in a different geographic area (travel time or other support resources could be different).
- lostlogin 13y ago
  The articles coverage of stop and frisk is bizarre, the police talk about how effective it's been despite halving the rate at which they do it. This would indicate that stop and frisk has a near zero effect on the murder rate.

jacobr 13y ago

You need to consider all improvements in trauma care since 1990. Some victims that would have died in 1990 would make it today.

bluedino 13y ago
Does anyone have the #'s for say, shootings?
- epc 13y ago
  From the linked PDF: Shooting Incidents YTD 2012: 581, 2013: 423 Shooting victims YTD 2012: 685, 2013: 486
  - zzzz123 13y ago
    perhaps aiming abilities decreased? due to drugs?
krschultz 13y ago
If you read the linked PDF, murders are down 83% while shooting victims are down 81% compared to 1993. Meanwhile, robberies are down 79%, rapes are down 54%, assaults are down 52%, etc. Everything is down 50-80% in the last 20 years, not just deaths. I don't think the facts support your narrative.
rdouble 13y ago
A friend of mine is a specialist trauma doctor in NYC and claims to only work 1.5 hours per day because hardly anything happens.

danvk 13y ago

Do you have numbers from before 1990? The late 80s and early 90s were a particularly violent time in NYC.

Zigurd 13y ago
The 70's were no picnic neither.
- mc32 13y ago
  I knew relatives who lived in and around Canarsie (Brooklyn) in the 40's --there were more Euro-immigrants there than now. One died from a robber slitting veins in his arms, the other from a stabbing (by strangers in both cases). So it seems to have been a voilent city for much of its history, not just something which came after the WWII boom subsided and sliding into the socio-economic issues of the 60s and 70s. I'm glad to see the city enter a new era of relative peacefulness. Now, I'd like to see the infrastructure upgraded to befit a great modern metropolis.