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There's also the link between abortion legalization and the subsequent drop in crime, mentioned in Freakonomics.

nhebb 13y ago
The Mother Jones article addresses that. You should read it. It's an interesting theory.
specialist 13y ago
The leaded gasoline theory better explains observations (gathered data). The abortion rights theory is still very interesting, and worth discussion, but leaded gasoline is currently more right, to be amended and supplanted as we learn more. Science!
- thorum 13y ago
  Steven Pinker argues that since the separation between the cause (lead exposure in childhood) and effect (criminal behavior in adulthood) is so wide, there are almost certainly big confounding variables that we haven't considered. > There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does not instantly turn someone i nto a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in some children, and under the right circumstances, leads them to grow up to make short - sight ed and risky choices, which, in some children and under the right circumstances, leads them to commit crimes, which, if enough young people act in the same way and at the same time, affects the crime rate. The lead hypothesis correlates the first and last link in this chain, but it would be more convincing if there were evidence about the intervening links. source - http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_on_lead_removal_and_declining_crime.pdf http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_o...
showerst 13y ago
Thirdly, there's also the effect of the newer policing techniques, like the 'broken windows' approach. It's likely some mix of all three.
- gnosis 13y ago
  "there's also the effect of the newer policing techniques" Or the non-effect of them. Crime rates have dropped drastically across the board, across the country, in many places that didn't make their policing policies more fascist as NYC's government chose to. From the MJ article: Second, and far more puzzling, it's not just New York that has seen a big drop in crime. In city after city, violent crime peaked in the early '90s and then began a steady and spectacular decline. Washington, DC, didn't have either Giuliani or Bratton, but its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its peak. Dallas' has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los Angeles: 78 percent. There must be more going on here than just a change in policing tactics in one city.
  - maxerickson 13y ago
    Oh, to have a statistics oracle. I wonder how much of it is associated with anti poverty programs.
  - YuriNiyazov 13y ago
    LA had Bratton.
  - vacri 13y ago
    It's really not that puzzling. Incarceration rates have skyrocketed in tandem with the drop in crime. What's puzzling is the number of analysts who keep on missing this most obvious piece of the pie.

nhebb 13y ago

The Mother Jones article addresses that. You should read it. It's an interesting theory.

The leaded gasoline theory better explains observations (gathered data). The abortion rights theory is still very interesting, and worth discussion, but leaded gasoline is currently more right, to be amended and supplanted as we learn more. Science!

thorum 13y ago
Steven Pinker argues that since the separation between the cause (lead exposure in childhood) and effect (criminal behavior in adulthood) is so wide, there are almost certainly big confounding variables that we haven't considered. > There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does not instantly turn someone i nto a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in some children, and under the right circumstances, leads them to grow up to make short - sight ed and risky choices, which, in some children and under the right circumstances, leads them to commit crimes, which, if enough young people act in the same way and at the same time, affects the crime rate. The lead hypothesis correlates the first and last link in this chain, but it would be more convincing if there were evidence about the intervening links. source - http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_on_lead_removal_and_declining_crime.pdf http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_o...

showerst 13y ago

Thirdly, there's also the effect of the newer policing techniques, like the 'broken windows' approach. It's likely some mix of all three.

gnosis 13y ago
"there's also the effect of the newer policing techniques" Or the non-effect of them. Crime rates have dropped drastically across the board, across the country, in many places that didn't make their policing policies more fascist as NYC's government chose to. From the MJ article: Second, and far more puzzling, it's not just New York that has seen a big drop in crime. In city after city, violent crime peaked in the early '90s and then began a steady and spectacular decline. Washington, DC, didn't have either Giuliani or Bratton, but its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its peak. Dallas' has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los Angeles: 78 percent. There must be more going on here than just a change in policing tactics in one city.
- maxerickson 13y ago
  Oh, to have a statistics oracle. I wonder how much of it is associated with anti poverty programs.
- YuriNiyazov 13y ago
  LA had Bratton.
- vacri 13y ago
  It's really not that puzzling. Incarceration rates have skyrocketed in tandem with the drop in crime. What's puzzling is the number of analysts who keep on missing this most obvious piece of the pie.