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Right, screw over thousands of merchants and workers in your country so a few at the top can make names for themselves as "rebels" ... does that sound like left
by joonix 13y ago
Right, screw over thousands of merchants and workers in your country so a few at the top can make names for themselves as "rebels" ... does that sound like leftism or being "for the people?" What exactly does giving up all this to house Snowden do for the average Ecuadorian? It increases the profile of the leadership, but that's about it.
- pessimizer 13y agoWhy have values when preferential treatment is at risk, right?
- dllthomas 13y agoThere are markets other than the US.
- scaredbythensa 13y agoSince all our freedom is for sale, right?
- antoko 13y agoYou seem to be assuming that if the US doesn't buy those flowers then no one will and they'll just rot. That seems unlikely. Given that they've also offered $23m for Human Right's training It seems likely they can afford to lose the $23m since they're effectively doubling that 'loss'. Is it grandstanding? sure, but if you agree with human rights it is exactly the right kind of grandstanding. Also, I have no problem with people considering themselves humans before they consider themselves members of a nation-state, even government officials of a nation-state.
- gwern 13y ago> You seem to be assuming that if the US doesn't buy those flowers then no one will and they'll just rot. That seems unlikely. At the margin, it seems incredibly likely. You don't cut yourself off from the largest wealthiest market in the hemisphere and continue to sell exactly as many flowers as before at exactly as high a price...
- antoko 13y agoObviously we don't know the details of the agreement so we can't actually know much of anything. Presumably the government itself isn't buying the flowers so I'd assume its more of free trade kind of deal so no tariffs or lesser tariffs are imposed on Ecuadorean imports. The removal of the agreement wouldn't then be embargo/sanctions, it would mean normally trade that other countries conduct with the US. So the price for US importers would increase and so at the margin as you rightly point out there would be some loss of profit and some loss of sales. We don't know how much though, and we don't know if those could be replaced by other purchasers and if so at at what price reduction. In any event it wouldn't be a loss of $23m a realistic estimate might be closer to 10% of that so around $2-3m. For a country with $5bn in oil exports that's chump change and given that its a leftist government any local workers that suffer will probably be have a decent social safety net in place until they get back on their feet.
- gwern 13y ago> In any event it wouldn't be a loss of $23m a realistic estimate might be closer to 10% of that so around $2-3m. ? Where are you getting this $23m from? The article says that they export to the USA "$166 million of cut flowers". 10% of that would be $16.6 million, not $2 million...
- antoko 13y agoI'm getting it from the article... In a cheeky jab at the U.S. spying program that Snowden unveiled through leaks to the media, the South American nation offered $23 million per year to finance human rights training. The funding would be destined to help "avoid violations of privacy, torture and other actions that are denigrating to humanity," Alvarado said. He said the amount was the equivalent of what Ecuador gained each year from the trade benefits.
- gwern 13y agoThen you have no reason to be adjusting the official figures by 10x: $23m is a perfectly plausible estimate of gains on an existing $166m industry.
- _delirium 13y agoIt's possible some of the flower growers will switch to other crops. My understanding is the reason flower export was included in this agreement in the first place is that the U.S. hoped to increase the market size of alternative export cash crops, so coca growers would have something to switch to. Which makes the move even less sensible from the U.S. side, because the U.S. program is not only some kind of selfless charity, but an attempt at reducing drug trafficking. Placing tariff barriers on legal exports like flowers and fruits just shifts the curve of how economically attractive illegal exports like coca look in comparison.
- brown9-2 13y agoGiven that they've also offered $23m for Human Right's training It seems likely they can afford to lose the $23m since they're effectively doubling that 'loss'. Why do you assume this money is set aside and actually exists when it sounds like a simple stunt?
- GFischer 13y agoIs it really good for Ecuador to trade with a country that bullies its way like that? China and others have their own set of problems, but they might make for better trade partners than the U.S., and China in particular is really lobbying itself as an option... lots of multibillion dollar government works and stuff that usually went to U.S., Europe, Japan or Korea by default are going to China now. And Ecuador is now selling its oil to China, not the U.S. The U.S. is losing control of its "backyard", which used to be economic colonies. However, Ecuador is uniquely tied to the U.S. by having adopted the dollar, and the U.S. still imports twice as much as China, so yes, this will hurt.
- tome 13y agoDo you think China will refrain from bullying if it is ever in its leaders' interests?
- nske 13y agoNo, but the best way to make bullying a less attractive tool to any government (China's too) is to show that it is not tolerated.
- GFischer 13y agoMost South American countries used to play the U.S. against Russia / Communist block to get benefits, today I think it's in their best interest to balance China and U.S./Europe.
- capex 13y agoFollowing a principle has its costs, but that shouldn't become a barrier towards doing the right thing.
- resu_nimda 13y agoCynically, yes, it's a big media ploy. But, what should they do instead? Would it be better for them to immediately crumble when big ol' capitalist America tries to tighten some screws? Maybe it provides morale for the average Ecuadorian, some faith and pride in their government. I wish ours would sometimes take a stand on human rights in the face of a more economically convenient option. However, I'll admit I'm not very familiar with Ecuador's political climate, it very well could be a hollow scheme.
- utnick 13y agoI bet this exposure brings more than 23 million $ in tourism to the country. Heck, journalist alone will probably spend a million over the next several years following Snowden around
- tootie 13y agoI bet it doesn't.
- orthecreedence 13y agoActually, as an American, I'm considering going there now (on vacation). I like the fact that there's a country standing up to the government I'm learning more and more to despise. Sure, I probably won't spend $23M there, but how many others feel the same way around the world?
- tootie 13y agoYou're probably in the extreme minority. Also, President Correa has sent journalists to prison for writing unflattering OP-EDs. It's funny that you have such a distrust of American politics, but automatically assume that Ecuadorean politicians are better.
- orthecreedence 13y agoI don't assume they're better, I just love surfing. When scouting out my next trip, I shall look more favorably on Ecuador.
- kcorbitt 13y agoI know a number of Ecuatorians living abroad, and they're very proud of what their government is doing regardless of the short-term economic consequences. I don't know who's right and who's wrong here, but there's a huge if often intangible benefit to taking a principled stance and sticking with it.
- joonix 13y agoEcuadorian expats working professional jobs abroad, or emigrants who left the country for greener pastures long ago, aren't really who matter here. Like I said it's the merchants and workers who rely on these export dollars who will suffer.