3 ms·

So our sun has three rocky planets near the habitable zone. One of them evolved intelligent, space-travelling, radio-communicating species. The other two have r

by cryptoz 13y ago

So our sun has three rocky planets near the habitable zone. One of them evolved intelligent, space-travelling, radio-communicating species. The other two have robots on them. If we're using our own system as a kind of model for projecting ideas about Gliese 667c, I'd be pretty optimistic about the chances.

stouset 13y ago
Except you have no idea of the relative probability of these events. Two of them have robots on them precisely because of the space-travelling, radio-communicating species on the third. But we have no firm data on the likelihood of a random planet in a star's habitable zone being rocky, having an active core, and a slow enough rotation for a stable atmosphere. Nor for that matter the expected percentage of time that such a planet should be expected to be populated with intelligent life over the span of its existence. You're effectively saying, "Somebody else has discovered a swan. The only swan I've seen is white. Therefore, I expect that this new swan is white as well."
Sharlin 13y ago
If we're using our own system as a kind of model for projecting ideas about Gliese 667c, I'd be pretty optimistic about the chances. The problem is that we cannot do that without succumbing to selection bias. We don't know how many things had to go just right to give rise to life, let alone a technological civilization, we just know that it has happened (at least) once in the whole universe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
xenophonf 13y ago
And on one of those two planets, all the robots are DEAD. If that isn't the setup for an awesome Doctor Who/Culture cross-over fanfic, I don't know what is.

3 ms·

So our sun has three rocky planets near the habitable zone. One of them evolved intelligent, space-travelling, radio-communicating species. The other two have r

by cryptoz 13y ago

stouset 13y ago
Except you have no idea of the relative probability of these events. Two of them have robots on them precisely because of the space-travelling, radio-communicating species on the third. But we have no firm data on the likelihood of a random planet in a star's habitable zone being rocky, having an active core, and a slow enough rotation for a stable atmosphere. Nor for that matter the expected percentage of time that such a planet should be expected to be populated with intelligent life over the span of its existence. You're effectively saying, "Somebody else has discovered a swan. The only swan I've seen is white. Therefore, I expect that this new swan is white as well."
Sharlin 13y ago
If we're using our own system as a kind of model for projecting ideas about Gliese 667c, I'd be pretty optimistic about the chances. The problem is that we cannot do that without succumbing to selection bias. We don't know how many things had to go just right to give rise to life, let alone a technological civilization, we just know that it has happened (at least) once in the whole universe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
xenophonf 13y ago
And on one of those two planets, all the robots are DEAD. If that isn't the setup for an awesome Doctor Who/Culture cross-over fanfic, I don't know what is.