6 ms·

It can't be coincidence that the most recent dumps of information from Snowden concern Hong Kong specifically. I have to wonder if he is floating information to

It can't be coincidence that the most recent dumps of information from Snowden concern Hong Kong specifically. I have to wonder if he is floating information to prove to Hong Kong/Chinese officials that he has more information to broker safety/asylum.

joelrunyon 13y ago
I bet his actions are directed to make HK/China consider their options instead of immediately complying with the US rather than to trade it directly with them. That seems more villainous than what he's currently up to.
- eclipticplane 13y ago
  Well, trade in the sense that if they keep him free that he can release the rest of the information. Do we know how much information he has that hasn't been released yet? Or if he provided information to The Guardian to release in the event that he was captured?
  - eightyone 13y ago
    I can't find the tweet, but a little while back Greenwald said on Twitter he has thousands of documents from Snowden.
  - mindcrime 13y ago
    This article[1] talks about that issue. But the tl/dr; is "thousands" of documents, with "dozens" considered newsworthy. [1]: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5866357 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5866357
kposehn 13y ago
Snowden seems to be making fairly adept strategic moves that were planned well in advance, while simultaneously pushing his information to be considered factual without much evidence (that I have seen) outside his testimony. The media is lapping up what he states with little, if any, validation. Of course, as is the nature of leaks, the information is often impossible to fully validate. There is some speculation that he was actually turned by the PLA prior to leaking and is providing them an excellent platform to exert pressure on Obama. Obama did, after all, add the Chinese hacking attempts to the agenda of his summit without consulting them, an extremely rude (to the Chinese) maneuver. If there is any conspiracy here, it is most likely China making an extremely effective effort to make Obama pay for their loss of face.
- caf 13y ago
  If the Chinese had a source in Snowden's position, it does not seem credible that they would voluntarily burn him just to cause some temporary domestic embarassment for the US President.
  - kposehn 13y ago
    If Snowden were indeed turned, his position would likely be of less value than another much more highly placed source. The M.O. of the Chinese Intel community is to both gather as much information as possible, while also providing opportunities to pursue their foreign and domestic policy goals. Snowden nicely fits the foreign policy goal and his position was not one of extreme privilege. He may have also provided all of his value in his placement and now is serving a different purpose. This isn't unusual; the USSR had many highly trained agents inserted into Germany during the Cold War who were placed specifically to be burnt in times of crisis or when it suite them - this exact scenario.
    - samstave 13y ago
      This is really interesting. Can you expound on this? What is your personal opinion of the probability of Snowden being an asset to the Chinese? Clearly the USG has their best minds on the permutations of probability here. What is the likelihood that Snowden is not making these strategically sound moves on his own? What is the likelihood that Snowden IS, in fact, masterfully playing this situation.
  - kposehn 13y ago
    Also, the fallout from this scandal is not necessarily domestic; it is quite far reaching in foreign policy circles and provides quite a few opportunities to frustrate US policy goals both economic, military and political. After all, the US approaches foreign policy from a moral and human rights standpoint (publicly). It is much easier to push back at the US when you can (rightly) point to abuses of the very cause we supposedly hold dear.
    - 13y ago

joelrunyon 13y ago

I bet his actions are directed to make HK/China consider their options instead of immediately complying with the US rather than to trade it directly with them. That seems more villainous than what he's currently up to.

eclipticplane 13y ago
Well, trade in the sense that if they keep him free that he can release the rest of the information. Do we know how much information he has that hasn't been released yet? Or if he provided information to The Guardian to release in the event that he was captured?
- eightyone 13y ago
  I can't find the tweet, but a little while back Greenwald said on Twitter he has thousands of documents from Snowden.
- mindcrime 13y ago
  This article[1] talks about that issue. But the tl/dr; is "thousands" of documents, with "dozens" considered newsworthy. [1]: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5866357 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5866357

kposehn 13y ago

Snowden seems to be making fairly adept strategic moves that were planned well in advance, while simultaneously pushing his information to be considered factual without much evidence (that I have seen) outside his testimony. The media is lapping up what he states with little, if any, validation. Of course, as is the nature of leaks, the information is often impossible to fully validate. There is some speculation that he was actually turned by the PLA prior to leaking and is providing them an excellent platform to exert pressure on Obama. Obama did, after all, add the Chinese hacking attempts to the agenda of his summit without consulting them, an extremely rude (to the Chinese) maneuver. If there is any conspiracy here, it is most likely China making an extremely effective effort to make Obama pay for their loss of face.

caf 13y ago
If the Chinese had a source in Snowden's position, it does not seem credible that they would voluntarily burn him just to cause some temporary domestic embarassment for the US President.
- kposehn 13y ago
  If Snowden were indeed turned, his position would likely be of less value than another much more highly placed source. The M.O. of the Chinese Intel community is to both gather as much information as possible, while also providing opportunities to pursue their foreign and domestic policy goals. Snowden nicely fits the foreign policy goal and his position was not one of extreme privilege. He may have also provided all of his value in his placement and now is serving a different purpose. This isn't unusual; the USSR had many highly trained agents inserted into Germany during the Cold War who were placed specifically to be burnt in times of crisis or when it suite them - this exact scenario.
  - samstave 13y ago
    This is really interesting. Can you expound on this? What is your personal opinion of the probability of Snowden being an asset to the Chinese? Clearly the USG has their best minds on the permutations of probability here. What is the likelihood that Snowden is not making these strategically sound moves on his own? What is the likelihood that Snowden IS, in fact, masterfully playing this situation.
- kposehn 13y ago
  Also, the fallout from this scandal is not necessarily domestic; it is quite far reaching in foreign policy circles and provides quite a few opportunities to frustrate US policy goals both economic, military and political. After all, the US approaches foreign policy from a moral and human rights standpoint (publicly). It is much easier to push back at the US when you can (rightly) point to abuses of the very cause we supposedly hold dear.
  - 13y ago