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For a system as complex as Earth's climate, it should come as no surprise that computer models are inaccurate. I think scientists do themselves a disservice whe
by LordHumungous 13y ago
For a system as complex as Earth's climate, it should come as no surprise that computer models are inaccurate. I think scientists do themselves a disservice when they point to these models as the best evidence for global warming. The really important datapoints are temperature and ice core measurements, as well as the melting of the ice caps, all of which show that the earth is warming at an alarming rate.
- soperj 13y agoSo far this year, there has been more sea ice worldwide than average. (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily....) Mostly on account of there being more than average in the Antarctic, and a little less than average in the arctic. Antarctic has been setting records(maximums, not minimums) in the last few years in terms of sea ice extent.
- asynchronous13 13y agoUm, did you look at the graph you linked to? They grey line is the mean for 1979-2008. The last two years, the blue line is distinctly below the mean. I don't know much about sea ice, but this graph isn't supporting your claims.
- soperj 13y agoMy "claim" was so far this year. It's not a claim, it's data. The red line down the bottom is the sea ice anomaly, and as you can see it's been above average for most of the year.
- asynchronous13 13y agoOk, i did a bit of googling to try and understand this. It turns out that the extent of sea ice in Antarctica has been expanding! though calling it record setting is misleading. The fresh water from the massive melt-off of land ice creates an insulation layer when it meets the sea water that prevents the sea ice from melting. One article [1] called it a "small but statistically significant sea-ice expansion". Another data point says there is more sea ice in antarctica today than 30 years ago. Put those two points together, and "small but statistically significant" becomes "RECORD SETTING!" [1] http://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-expands-antarctic-sea-ice-1.12709 http://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-expands-antarctic-...
- soperj 13y agoRecord setting, as in, It's the largest extent on record.
- asynchronous13 13y agomisleading, as in, the minor increase in sea ice is insignificant compared to the massive amount of land ice that has melted.
- LordHumungous 13y agoSo what? When it comes to global climate trends, a single year is one insignificant datapoint.
- pedalpete 13y agoIsn't the more important point not the rate of increase, but the effect current temperatures are having on the ice caps? For example, I can sit a turkey in my oven at 20 degrees (c) and raise the temperature 20% per minute, but that rate of increase doesn't actually cook the bird. Once the temperature gets above 140 degrees, then cooking starts to take place (I'm not completely sure of the temps, but go with me). The temperature doesn't have to continue rising, every minute that the bird is held over a certain temperature, that bird will continue to cook. May be slow, may be long, but the damage is being done. Same with your reference to ice core measurements and melting ice caps. It doesn't matter if the temperture continues to increase at the current rate, or the rate slows. As long as the average temperature is kept above 0, the ice will continue to melt. And the article doesn't say temps are decreasing, just that the rate of increase is less than expected.
- shawndumas 13y agofor science? maybe; for pushing policy? nope -- it's very important that the numbers be the same (have a consensus) and that they be higher.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]