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the title is very accurate; the consensus on how much it was supposed to heat up is eroding (the use of the word 'cooling' is a play on words). FTA "In the end,
by shawndumas 13y ago
the title is very accurate; the consensus on how much it was supposed to heat up is eroding (the use of the word 'cooling' is a play on words). FTA "In the end, the so-called scientific consensus on global warming doesn’t look like much like consensus when scientists are struggling to explain the intricacies of the earth’s climate system, or uttering the word “uncertainty” with striking regularity."
and
"The moralising stridency of so many arguments for cap-and-trade, carbon taxes, and global emissions treaties was founded on the idea that there is a consensus about how much warming there would be if carbon emissions continue on trend. The rather heated debates we have had about the likely economic and social damage of carbon emissions have been based on that idea that there is something like a scientific consensus about the range of warming we can expect. If that consensus is now falling apart, as it seems it may be, that is, for good or ill, a very big deal."
- batbomb 13y agoIf you are a scientist, especially one who deals with statistics, and you don't utter the word "uncertainty" on a daily basis then you don't deserve to be a scientist. Using that as a criticism, especially given the word has very technical meanings in terms of distributions and fits, is silly.
- shawndumas 13y agothe argument that that word is aimed at is not a scientific argument but a political argument. FTA : "This isn't a crisis for climate science. This is just the way science goes. But it is a crisis for climate-policy advocates who based their arguments on the authority of scientific consensus."
- vannevar 13y agothe title is very accurate No, it's not. As the article notes up front, there is no serious doubt that the climate is warming. So not only is the climate not cooling, neither is the consensus. Estimates of the long-term rate of warming have always varied, but the consensus remains that the rate is significant and even the lower estimates will result in environmental changes that will impact millions of people.
- baak 13y agoIt's a pun... cooler heads prevailing doesn't mean peoples' heads are actually cooling down. The title was a play on words about the upset about global warming dying down.
- shawndumas 13y agobut the consensus on how much it is heating up is 'cooling'.
- hristov 13y agoNope it is inaccurate. There never was a consensus about exactly how much the earth would warm up in the future. Scientists always had different models showing different projections. The consensus was that (1) the earth is warming (2) if not stopped this will have catastrophic effects on the human race soon. Both of those things are still true and there is still the same consensus about them.
- shawndumas 13y agowow, guys, the argument that the article is aimed at is not a scientific argument but a political argument. FTA : "This isn't a crisis for climate science. This is just the way science goes. But it is a crisis for climate-policy advocates who based their arguments on the authority of scientific consensus."