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Antibiotic resistance is definitely not an existential threat. Most people do not catch any bacterial diseases that would be fatal if untreated before their rep

Antibiotic resistance is definitely not an existential threat. Most people do not catch any bacterial diseases that would be fatal if untreated before their reproductive years. That doesn't mean it's a good situation, but existential threat is greatly overstating the problem. People would have to have an extra baby, MAYBE.

kolinko 13y ago
Well, don't most people catch any bacterial diseases, because we're good at healing the ones that do? With no antibiotics, the bacteria would spread more rapidly, and more people would be sick, and die, right?
- 300bps 13y ago
  What OP said: >presents an existential threat to modern society What responders seem to be responding to: >presents an existential threat to humanity The latter one is obviously wrong. The former, I think it's more likely than not that it's wrong. Sure, globalization would make bacterial outbreaks more likely but simple things like more frequent hand washing and wearing surgical masks any time you're out in public would cut the infection rate down tremendously. There are many societal things we could do to improve society's chances of survival before antibiotic resistance would become an existential threat to society.
  - jljljl 13y ago
    This is probably true for a most infections you encounter in every day life, but the infection rate for surgical procedures is higher, despite reduction through sterilization and antiseptic. There are also a number of professions where the chances of injury, and subsequently infection, are much higher. It's possible that there would be large societal changes if the ability to undergo surgery or work in risky professions is hampered by an increased risk of lethal infections.
pvnick 13y ago
Considering horizontal gene transfer, I would say there most certainly is a route for stated existential threat. Bacteria trade plasmids back and fourth all the time, including those that code for antibiotic resistance. So while you are correct that the most likely outcome is a return to the pre-antibiotic era (still really bad), you underestimate the dangers in the resistance in that all sorts bacteria can become resistent, both against the medications themselves as well as against the body's own immune system. Also, notice I intentionally said an existential threat to society, not humanity. It's fair to say that no longer being able to perform surgical procedures safely would be very destabilizing to modern society.
- eru 13y ago
  > [...] both against the medications themselves as well as against the body's own immune system. Our bodys' immune systems have been around for a while. If bacteria haven't become resistant to them by now, I don't see any immediate threat.
swombat 13y ago
It's an existential threat because our modern society is extremely promiscuous, not insular like the world was in the past. The disappearance of antibiotics would put a serious damper on the current trends of globalisation. It's not an existential threat to the survival of mankind, but it is an existential threat to the survival of our modern society.
- sliverstorm 13y ago
  it is an existential threat to the survival of our modern society Forget about promiscuity vs. insularity- modern society is not built on the backs of twenty-year-olds. If humans suddenly did not survive much past their prime reproductive age, humanity would survive with absolute ease, but modern society would undergo dramatic change.
refurb 13y ago
I would agree. Humans survived up all the way up until the point antibiotics were discovered, so why wouldn't they survive if all antibiotics suddenly became ineffective? Sure you'd see average life expectancy drop dramatically, but I don't think you'd see humans die out as a species.
- tsotha 13y ago
  >Sure you'd see average life expectancy drop dramatically... I wonder about that. I'll bet the drop would be pretty small if we started the aggressive public health measures they took before antibiotics.
- salmonellaeater 13y ago
  The number of people each person comes into contact with daily has increased dramatically. Basically the R0 of most diseases is much higher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infec...

kolinko 13y ago

Well, don't most people catch any bacterial diseases, because we're good at healing the ones that do? With no antibiotics, the bacteria would spread more rapidly, and more people would be sick, and die, right?

300bps 13y ago
What OP said: >presents an existential threat to modern society What responders seem to be responding to: >presents an existential threat to humanity The latter one is obviously wrong. The former, I think it's more likely than not that it's wrong. Sure, globalization would make bacterial outbreaks more likely but simple things like more frequent hand washing and wearing surgical masks any time you're out in public would cut the infection rate down tremendously. There are many societal things we could do to improve society's chances of survival before antibiotic resistance would become an existential threat to society.
- jljljl 13y ago
  This is probably true for a most infections you encounter in every day life, but the infection rate for surgical procedures is higher, despite reduction through sterilization and antiseptic. There are also a number of professions where the chances of injury, and subsequently infection, are much higher. It's possible that there would be large societal changes if the ability to undergo surgery or work in risky professions is hampered by an increased risk of lethal infections.

pvnick 13y ago

Considering horizontal gene transfer, I would say there most certainly is a route for stated existential threat. Bacteria trade plasmids back and fourth all the time, including those that code for antibiotic resistance. So while you are correct that the most likely outcome is a return to the pre-antibiotic era (still really bad), you underestimate the dangers in the resistance in that all sorts bacteria can become resistent, both against the medications themselves as well as against the body's own immune system. Also, notice I intentionally said an existential threat to society, not humanity. It's fair to say that no longer being able to perform surgical procedures safely would be very destabilizing to modern society.

eru 13y ago
> [...] both against the medications themselves as well as against the body's own immune system. Our bodys' immune systems have been around for a while. If bacteria haven't become resistant to them by now, I don't see any immediate threat.

swombat 13y ago

It's an existential threat because our modern society is extremely promiscuous, not insular like the world was in the past. The disappearance of antibiotics would put a serious damper on the current trends of globalisation. It's not an existential threat to the survival of mankind, but it is an existential threat to the survival of our modern society.

sliverstorm 13y ago
it is an existential threat to the survival of our modern society Forget about promiscuity vs. insularity- modern society is not built on the backs of twenty-year-olds. If humans suddenly did not survive much past their prime reproductive age, humanity would survive with absolute ease, but modern society would undergo dramatic change.

refurb 13y ago

I would agree. Humans survived up all the way up until the point antibiotics were discovered, so why wouldn't they survive if all antibiotics suddenly became ineffective? Sure you'd see average life expectancy drop dramatically, but I don't think you'd see humans die out as a species.

tsotha 13y ago
>Sure you'd see average life expectancy drop dramatically... I wonder about that. I'll bet the drop would be pretty small if we started the aggressive public health measures they took before antibiotics.
salmonellaeater 13y ago
The number of people each person comes into contact with daily has increased dramatically. Basically the R0 of most diseases is much higher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infec...