One other thing I saw is the claim that the denials were not evidence because it would be denied either way. Which is in complete contradiction to Bayesian stat

One other thing I saw is the claim that the denials were not evidence because it would be denied either way. Which is in complete contradiction to Bayesian statistics (denial probability is ~100% if they aren't surveilling us, and <100% if they are, see: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_of_absence/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_o..., specifically the discussion of the supposed "5th column").