6 ms·

So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year? I guess we're moving the goal posts again.

by dannyr 13y ago

ghshephard 13y ago
How many hours/days will it take to get 10%, 25% and 50% of the iOS platform on to iOS 7? I'm betting over 50% installed base will be on iOS 7 in less than a month.
- jamesaguilar 13y ago
  It took two weeks to hit 45% when iOS 6 was released. http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios6update.png http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios... Wow-level context: Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-Up-Nearly-ThreeFold-Since-Beginning-of-Year/ http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-U...
  - ghshephard 13y ago
    Also, keep in mind iOS 6 was (somewhat) held back in terms of adoption because google hadn't released maps for the platform yet.
    - FireBeyond 13y ago
      That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal. I think blaming Google for iOS 6 adoption not being (even) quicker is grasping at straws that in all likelihood don't exist.
      - seabee 13y ago
        Given I've also known a few unrelated people do this, I believe your blanket dismissal foolish when it's simple to falsify the thesis: check iOS 6 adoption after Google Maps was released.
      - ghshephard 13y ago
        re: "That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal." I'll see your anecdotal and raise you a citation. http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-ios-6-adoption-rate-soars-following-google-maps-release-955120 http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-ios-6-adoption-rate-soars-follo... "The Dec. 12 reinstatement of Google Maps on iOS has apparently been enough for some of those reticent users to finally make the upgrade to iOS 6. After achieving 10 million downloads in the first 48 hours available, MoPub, the San Francisco-based mobile ad exchange that monitors more than 1 billion ad impressions a day and supports more than a dozen ad networks and 12,000 apps, says there has been a 29 percent increase in unique iOS 6 users in the five days following Google Maps' release on iOS. " BTW, not "blaming" Google, if anything, I would be blaming Apple for having a sub-par map application (As a frequent international traveler, I can tell you it's still not up to par with Google's maps) - but I'm not blaming anyone. Just recognizing it was a pretty significant issue for many people.
  - _pmf_ 13y ago
    > Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. That clearly shows that Android users are happy with the current release and see no need to switch to a newer version because core features are missing completely, as is the case with iOS.
    - JangoSteve 13y ago
      I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. In case you're not, I've been an Android user for years now, and that is most certainly not what it shows. The vast majority of people can't upgrade to Jelly-bean, because their device, manufacturers, or carriers don't support it or won't release the update for their particular phone. For example, the Droid Bionic was on Gingerbread with no way to upgrade (without rooting) until October 2012 [1]. And the upgrade was for Ice Cream Sandwich which was already 12 months old by that time (and Jelly-bean, the next version after ICS, had already been out for 3 months by that time) [2]. [1] http://www.droid-life.com/2012/10/23/droid-bionic-ice-cream-sandwich-update-available-to-all/ http://www.droid-life.com/2012/10/23/droid-bionic-ice-cream-... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history#Android_4.0.E2.80.934.0.2_Ice_Cream_Sandwich_.28API_level_14.29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history#Android...
bennyg 13y ago
iOS6 is at 93% and it hasn't even been a year yet. Where's Jellybean? Who's still stuck writing apps that are compatible with Gingerbread and have to use ActionBar Sherlock?
- dannyr 13y ago
  The thing is a number of developers are just writing for 4.0 and above. I've not saying fragmentation on Android isn't bad. What I'm arguing is fragmentation on iOS is being framed as a good thing (actually a "great" thing) by the author of the post.
  - ghshephard 13y ago
    But Android wouldn't be (OS) fragmented if you had 90%+ of the user population on Jelly Bean 4.1+ iOS isn't going to fragment - the vast majority of the user base will immediately upgrade to iOS 7.
    - codeulike 13y ago
      You're probably right. But Marco's argument hinges on the idea that: - there will be fragmentation - hence it will be difficult for developers to write apps that make the most of iOS6 and iOS7 - hence this is an opportunity for nimble new players to enter the market and capture the iOS7 userbase I agree that there probably wont be fragmentation, but the point is, Marco is saying if there was, it will be a brilliant opportunity. Therein lies the mental gymnastics.
      - wilfra 13y ago
        I think he's more saying that people will be reluctant and/or unable to completely rethink their apps design and functionality and this will present an opportunity for new developers who build things that are uniquely suited to iOS 7 and beat the old slow-moving incumbents.
        codeulike 13y ago

So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year? I guess we're moving the goal posts again.

by dannyr 13y ago

So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year? I guess we're moving the goal posts again.

How many hours/days will it take to get 10%, 25% and 50% of the iOS platform on to iOS 7? I'm betting over 50% installed base will be on iOS 7 in less than a month.

jamesaguilar 13y ago
It took two weeks to hit 45% when iOS 6 was released. http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios6update.png http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios... Wow-level context: Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-Up-Nearly-ThreeFold-Since-Beginning-of-Year/ http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-U...
- ghshephard 13y ago
  Also, keep in mind iOS 6 was (somewhat) held back in terms of adoption because google hadn't released maps for the platform yet.
  - FireBeyond 13y ago
    That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal. I think blaming Google for iOS 6 adoption not being (even) quicker is grasping at straws that in all likelihood don't exist.
    - seabee 13y ago
      Given I've also known a few unrelated people do this, I believe your blanket dismissal foolish when it's simple to falsify the thesis: check iOS 6 adoption after Google Maps was released.
    - ghshephard 13y ago
      re: "That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal." I'll see your anecdotal and raise you a citation. http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-ios-6-adoption-rate-soars-following-google-maps-release-955120 http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-ios-6-adoption-rate-soars-follo... "The Dec. 12 reinstatement of Google Maps on iOS has apparently been enough for some of those reticent users to finally make the upgrade to iOS 6. After achieving 10 million downloads in the first 48 hours available, MoPub, the San Francisco-based mobile ad exchange that monitors more than 1 billion ad impressions a day and supports more than a dozen ad networks and 12,000 apps, says there has been a 29 percent increase in unique iOS 6 users in the five days following Google Maps' release on iOS. " BTW, not "blaming" Google, if anything, I would be blaming Apple for having a sub-par map application (As a frequent international traveler, I can tell you it's still not up to par with Google's maps) - but I'm not blaming anyone. Just recognizing it was a pretty significant issue for many people.
- _pmf_ 13y ago
  > Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. That clearly shows that Android users are happy with the current release and see no need to switch to a newer version because core features are missing completely, as is the case with iOS.
  - JangoSteve 13y ago
    I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. In case you're not, I've been an Android user for years now, and that is most certainly not what it shows. The vast majority of people can't upgrade to Jelly-bean, because their device, manufacturers, or carriers don't support it or won't release the update for their particular phone. For example, the Droid Bionic was on Gingerbread with no way to upgrade (without rooting) until October 2012 [1]. And the upgrade was for Ice Cream Sandwich which was already 12 months old by that time (and Jelly-bean, the next version after ICS, had already been out for 3 months by that time) [2]. [1] http://www.droid-life.com/2012/10/23/droid-bionic-ice-cream-sandwich-update-available-to-all/ http://www.droid-life.com/2012/10/23/droid-bionic-ice-cream-... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history#Android_4.0.E2.80.934.0.2_Ice_Cream_Sandwich_.28API_level_14.29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history#Android...

bennyg 13y ago

iOS6 is at 93% and it hasn't even been a year yet. Where's Jellybean? Who's still stuck writing apps that are compatible with Gingerbread and have to use ActionBar Sherlock?

dannyr 13y ago
The thing is a number of developers are just writing for 4.0 and above. I've not saying fragmentation on Android isn't bad. What I'm arguing is fragmentation on iOS is being framed as a good thing (actually a "great" thing) by the author of the post.
- ghshephard 13y ago
  But Android wouldn't be (OS) fragmented if you had 90%+ of the user population on Jelly Bean 4.1+ iOS isn't going to fragment - the vast majority of the user base will immediately upgrade to iOS 7.
  - codeulike 13y ago
    You're probably right. But Marco's argument hinges on the idea that: - there will be fragmentation - hence it will be difficult for developers to write apps that make the most of iOS6 and iOS7 - hence this is an opportunity for nimble new players to enter the market and capture the iOS7 userbase I agree that there probably wont be fragmentation, but the point is, Marco is saying if there was, it will be a brilliant opportunity. Therein lies the mental gymnastics.
    - wilfra 13y ago
      I think he's more saying that people will be reluctant and/or unable to completely rethink their apps design and functionality and this will present an opportunity for new developers who build things that are uniquely suited to iOS 7 and beat the old slow-moving incumbents.
      - codeulike 13y ago