4 ms·
It's not hard to predict a movie's box office right before it comes out Well, there's the Netflix prize[0] which tells otherwise Predicting movie appreciation
by durum 13y ago
It's not hard to predict a movie's box office right before it comes out
Well, there's the Netflix prize[0] which tells otherwise
Predicting movie appreciation is actually very hard to solve. One of the infamous examples is the "Napoleon dynamite problem"[1]
[0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix_Prize http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix_Prize
[1] http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081123/1212542927.shtml http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20081123/1212542927.shtml
- teraflop 13y agoThe Netflix prize results show that recommending movies that an individual viewer is likely to enjoy is, in certain cases, a hard problem. That doesn't say much about the difficulty of predicting a movie's aggregate popularity over a large population.
- pseut 13y agoIIRC the netflix prize is about making predictions for individual users based on their history & interests, which is orders of magnitude harder than making a prediction for the average over all users, which is all that you need for box office predictions.