Now, the female dislike of programming jobs goes beyond this tail effect. I'd say it goes so far beyond that effect to render it pretty much meaningless. This

Now, the female dislike of programming jobs goes beyond this tail effect. I'd say it goes so far beyond that effect to render it pretty much meaningless. This discussion wasn't about who's more likely to win a Fields Metal, it's about women in programming. The gap between winning a fields medal and being a competent programmer is ginormus. Assuming I read you correctly, we'd both agree that there's not a strong correlation between the percentage of men and women with the basic mathematical ability to be programmers and the percentage of men and women who in fact are programmers. I think the real answer lies in some mix of actual physiological differences between men and women and roles that are engendered by society. Given the number of roles that people were sure of 50 years ago that women couldn't do that they are now debunked (as politicians, executives, doctors, lawyers) I tend to err on the side of the latter. This is especially poignant in the country where I live (Germany) where the Chancellor is a woman with a PhD in quantum chemistry.