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Talking about Facebook is the ultimate bike-shedding discussion. Everybody, and I mean literally everybody inside and outside of the tech world has an opinion.

Talking about Facebook is the ultimate bike-shedding discussion. Everybody, and I mean literally everybody inside and outside of the tech world has an opinion. That's fine, but when people start extrapolating their opinion to predict the fate of Facebook (and this applies more to the previous article than this one) I just have to laugh. I'm sure Facebook will make a fascinating topic for anthropologists 50 years from now, but in the meantime I don't need a slew of columnists going all Nostradamus on the subject. What one likes or dislikes about FB, or tips on how to use it are all potentially good topics, but the grand predictions are just so much noise.

enraged_camel 13y ago
I agree thst predictions by themselves are noise. However, predictions that are based on analogy are fascinating. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." We see this all the time in the technology sector alone. For example, back in the 80s companies used to buy IBM servers because the thought was that nobody would be fired for buying the safe product. As a result, IBM stagnated in the very area in which it was most competitive. These days, we see Oracle in the exact same spot. Their salespeople use the exact same "fear, uncertainty and doubt" strategy and therefore it is safe to predict that they will end up just like IBM in many ways, just like Facebook will end up like AOL.
- dasil003 13y ago
  I guess my problem with Facebook predictions is that the majority of them seem to simply be someone writing about their personal experience with Facebook and then extrapolating that out. I honestly think that what blogger X or tech journalist Y thinks about using Facebook is utterly immaterial to the future of Facebook. They've crossed the chasm, it doesn't matter if the technorati think Facebook is "done", they don't need us, and our nerd rage will not affect their future in any way.

enraged_camel 13y ago

I agree thst predictions by themselves are noise. However, predictions that are based on analogy are fascinating. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." We see this all the time in the technology sector alone. For example, back in the 80s companies used to buy IBM servers because the thought was that nobody would be fired for buying the safe product. As a result, IBM stagnated in the very area in which it was most competitive. These days, we see Oracle in the exact same spot. Their salespeople use the exact same "fear, uncertainty and doubt" strategy and therefore it is safe to predict that they will end up just like IBM in many ways, just like Facebook will end up like AOL.

dasil003 13y ago
I guess my problem with Facebook predictions is that the majority of them seem to simply be someone writing about their personal experience with Facebook and then extrapolating that out. I honestly think that what blogger X or tech journalist Y thinks about using Facebook is utterly immaterial to the future of Facebook. They've crossed the chasm, it doesn't matter if the technorati think Facebook is "done", they don't need us, and our nerd rage will not affect their future in any way.