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Don't miss Philip's point, "let’s always keep in mind that John Ioannidis would predict that a subsequent paper will find a different answer". Anecdotally, my

Don't miss Philip's point, "let’s always keep in mind that John Ioannidis would predict that a subsequent paper will find a different answer". Anecdotally, my father has a pretty specialized job and got burned repeatedly in the housing market as he moved around for work. In his case it probably would have been a lot better for him if he'd rented almost every home he ever owned. In my case, I'm settling down with my family, friends, and extended family. I do not intend to move for another 20-30 years regardless of work. I think people should take this view seriously... if you want to stay where you are for 30 years and are willing do that despite potentially limited career (and financial) opportunities then owning a home makes sense (and managing your finances to enable this kind of lifestyle makes even more sense). If you want to pursue "the best" work or are concerned about financial security from employment you should consider not buying a home so you can remain flexible. I obviously haven't read the paper, but the idea of home ownership negatively affecting employment is interesting.

huherto 13y ago
This calculator helps you decide if it is better to buy or rent. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calcula... As you pointed it out, a key factor is how long you are going to remain in the house.
- ndonnellan 13y ago
  I stumbled upon that calculator after writing one of my own one afternoon; it's cool! Another key factor: house price appreciation and your ROI of capital. If house prices (adj. for inflation) don't rise much (as last 100 yrs or even 40 have shown) and you can make several percentage points above inflation on investing what you would have put into a down-payment, it doesn't matter how long you live in the home. It's all in what kinda SWAGs you make. The default values in the NYtimes calculator are 1100/mo equiv. for $172k, but based on price to rent ratios here in Austin (near 20? http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/texas/austin/ http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/texas/austin/) that home price would be near $250k
- secabeen 13y ago
  That calculator is good, but simplifies a lot of things. For example, there's no easy way to include rent you charge to someone renting a room in your home. After using the NYTimes one a bunch of times, I found this one, which is much more full-featured: http://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html http://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html
  - huherto 13y ago
    shiny! Thanks
- dagw 13y ago
  The other key factor is, is there interesting property available for rent when and where you need it. I'm currently looking for a bigger place for me and my family and the overlap between property available for rent and property I'd consider living in is pretty close to zero. So as such the relative financial merits of the two options are pretty much irrelevant.
philwelch 13y ago
> I do not intend to move for another 20-30 years regardless of work. I think people should take this view seriously... if you want to stay where you are for 30 years and are willing do that despite potentially limited career (and financial) opportunities... Let's assume you're 30 by the time you're even ready to buy a house. At that point, in another 30 years there's a significant chance you'll be either dead or within 5-10 years of death. Essentially, what you're saying when you buy a house is that you don't intend to move ever again in your life. That's a pretty grave commitment.
- russgray 13y ago
  It's a commitment I made happily. I've bought a house I love, near to both my family and my wife's family, in a nice neighbourhood, near a train station that gets me into London (for huge career flexibility and opportunity) in 35 minutes. I probably will move again one day, when the kids are out and we want to downsize, but if I was told I would never move again in my life I'd be entirely content.

huherto 13y ago

This calculator helps you decide if it is better to buy or rent. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calcula... As you pointed it out, a key factor is how long you are going to remain in the house.

ndonnellan 13y ago
I stumbled upon that calculator after writing one of my own one afternoon; it's cool! Another key factor: house price appreciation and your ROI of capital. If house prices (adj. for inflation) don't rise much (as last 100 yrs or even 40 have shown) and you can make several percentage points above inflation on investing what you would have put into a down-payment, it doesn't matter how long you live in the home. It's all in what kinda SWAGs you make. The default values in the NYtimes calculator are 1100/mo equiv. for $172k, but based on price to rent ratios here in Austin (near 20? http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/texas/austin/ http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/texas/austin/) that home price would be near $250k
secabeen 13y ago
That calculator is good, but simplifies a lot of things. For example, there's no easy way to include rent you charge to someone renting a room in your home. After using the NYTimes one a bunch of times, I found this one, which is much more full-featured: http://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html http://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html
- huherto 13y ago
  shiny! Thanks
dagw 13y ago
The other key factor is, is there interesting property available for rent when and where you need it. I'm currently looking for a bigger place for me and my family and the overlap between property available for rent and property I'd consider living in is pretty close to zero. So as such the relative financial merits of the two options are pretty much irrelevant.

philwelch 13y ago

> I do not intend to move for another 20-30 years regardless of work. I think people should take this view seriously... if you want to stay where you are for 30 years and are willing do that despite potentially limited career (and financial) opportunities... Let's assume you're 30 by the time you're even ready to buy a house. At that point, in another 30 years there's a significant chance you'll be either dead or within 5-10 years of death. Essentially, what you're saying when you buy a house is that you don't intend to move ever again in your life. That's a pretty grave commitment.

russgray 13y ago
It's a commitment I made happily. I've bought a house I love, near to both my family and my wife's family, in a nice neighbourhood, near a train station that gets me into London (for huge career flexibility and opportunity) in 35 minutes. I probably will move again one day, when the kids are out and we want to downsize, but if I was told I would never move again in my life I'd be entirely content.