A major problem with this experimental setting, and the proposal that bets signal belief, is that they ignore the system the bets are placed in. As students ob

A major problem with this experimental setting, and the proposal that bets signal belief, is that they ignore the system the bets are placed in. As students observe, "the right answer" depends on who's doing the judging. Most students have learned to answer not what they believe, but what they believe the examiner wants to hear. This is a fairly important skill, as many examiners are incapable of asking even unambiguous questions. On the other side of the equation, information signalled in a bet is tainted by the signaller. The answer they give is not necessarily their "honest belief", but rather what they wish to signal as such. Much of high-stakes information, such as in politics, commerce, and warfare, is valued opaquely, for the purpose of enticing onlookers to act on the bets that they do see, which can be counter to the interests of the bettor.