3 ms·
But doesn't that assume the exponential stays exponential and doesn't slow down like a sigmoid?
by biohacker42 17y ago
But doesn't that assume the exponential stays exponential and doesn't slow down like a sigmoid?
- fhars 17y agoThw assumptions are even stronger. To actually become singular, the development must start to accelerate to eventually become infinitely faster than exponential. Otherwise you will just get growth by a constant factor in a constant time, with no singularity ever. The other way to get a singularity is to have a quantity you divide by go to zero, like when the price society has to pay for the next development step is an increasing function of the inverse of the remaining supplies of a finite resource (like some rare earth element required for faster semiconductors or whatever). If we just continue like we did for the last few decades, this might as well be the most probable type of singularity to expect until 2045. But that is of course nothing to build a milleniarist movement upon.