4 ms·

It's not a fallacy or a cheap cop out. You're of the opinion that what we know about the weather now is all that we need to know, but it's not. How does the o

by flagnog 13y ago

It's not a fallacy or a cheap cop out. You're of the opinion that what we know about the weather now is all that we need to know, but it's not. How does the orbit of the moon affect weather? What about changes in the magnetic currents in the Earth's core? Earthquakes? Solar winds? Can you tell me what solar activity will be like in 10 years? "Everything that I am describing is standard and has been known for decades." How many times have we heard this, just before big leaps in understanding have occurred? Several times, just in my lifetime. It's hubris to believe we know that much about the weather.

btilly 13y ago
Comprehension time. I never said that we know everything that we need to. I've repeatedly pointed out that our models have big error bars on them, and there are long lists of things that we need to improve, of which your list doesn't even hit on the most important parts. But the fact that we have significant unknowns doesn't mean that we can't put order of magnitude estimates on our uncertainty, plug those into models, and come up with error bars. In fact that is how those models are developed, and how we develop error bars. "Everything that I am describing is standard and has been known for decades." How many times have we heard this, just before big leaps in understanding have occurred? It's hubris to believe we know that much about the weather. I said that after getting through a description of how the jet stream works, and was clearly referring to that description. I did not say - nor did I imply - that the jet stream is everything to do with the weather or climate. Important? Yes. Everything? No. It is certain that there will be major discoveries over the next 20 years about how climate works. Why is Greenland showing far more melting than expected? How does soot from China affect everything from arctic ice to rainfall in the USA, and how does that affect climate? How much methane will be released as permafrost melts, and what will the climate impact of that be? These are all areas of active research. But I'd be shocked if scientists 20 years from now disagree with scientists from 20 years ago about how the jet stream works.
- flagnog 13y ago
  Wow, speaking of comprehension - the last sentence that you quoted emphasizes that I was talking about the weather, in general, not the jet stream. And order of magnitude estimates are about as accurate as a neophyte programmers time estimates.

by flagnog 13y ago

btilly 13y ago

Comprehension time. I never said that we know everything that we need to. I've repeatedly pointed out that our models have big error bars on them, and there are long lists of things that we need to improve, of which your list doesn't even hit on the most important parts. But the fact that we have significant unknowns doesn't mean that we can't put order of magnitude estimates on our uncertainty, plug those into models, and come up with error bars. In fact that is how those models are developed, and how we develop error bars. "Everything that I am describing is standard and has been known for decades." How many times have we heard this, just before big leaps in understanding have occurred? It's hubris to believe we know that much about the weather. I said that after getting through a description of how the jet stream works, and was clearly referring to that description. I did not say - nor did I imply - that the jet stream is everything to do with the weather or climate. Important? Yes. Everything? No. It is certain that there will be major discoveries over the next 20 years about how climate works. Why is Greenland showing far more melting than expected? How does soot from China affect everything from arctic ice to rainfall in the USA, and how does that affect climate? How much methane will be released as permafrost melts, and what will the climate impact of that be? These are all areas of active research. But I'd be shocked if scientists 20 years from now disagree with scientists from 20 years ago about how the jet stream works.

flagnog 13y ago
Wow, speaking of comprehension - the last sentence that you quoted emphasizes that I was talking about the weather, in general, not the jet stream. And order of magnitude estimates are about as accurate as a neophyte programmers time estimates.