3 ms·
It's worth noting that SF is already on it's 3rd or 4th major evolution; between the Gold Rush, the big shipbuilding days, the 1906 earthquake, the WWII period
by tomkarlo 13y ago
It's worth noting that SF is already on it's 3rd or 4th major evolution; between the Gold Rush, the big shipbuilding days, the 1906 earthquake, the WWII period and 90's tech bubble, it's survived a series of major changes and collapses and rebuilt successfully. I don't know Detroit's history that well, but it seems like it's basically had one major act (the auto industry) and that's still playing out.
- jared314 13y agoThe timeline you described has events separated by 40 or more years. I cannot practically plan my life around events separated by almost half a generation.
- tomkarlo 13y agoI chose a few events from a 300 year history. There are lots of micro cycles - if you note from the article, current prices are only returning to previous highs from 2007. So in just 6 years we've gone through a cycle.
- jared314 13y agoThe previous highs from 2007 were real estate bubble prices. I don't consider a return to over-inflated prices a rebound. Is your point that everything is a cycle, or that SF will rebound after this new bubble?
- tomkarlo 13y agoWhenever you return to a previous high, it was a bubble / peak. Because otherwise it wouldn't now be a "previous high". That doesn't mean the new price is a bubble or not - it's just inherent in the definition of the term. The 2000 peak was a big "previous high" too, and yet even in the depth of the last 2007-2012 cycle, prices didn't drop below that level. SF prices 1996-Mar 2013 http://my.paragon-re.com/Docs/General/SixtyFortyImages/Case-Shiller_HT_1996-2011.jpg http://my.paragon-re.com/Docs/General/SixtyFortyImages/Case-...