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You are forgiven. The pessimists have had their say long enough. Mr. R is a perma-bear and his doomsday montra has gone on long enough. Spring is here. Let'

by tsm1528 17y ago

You are forgiven. The pessimists have had their say long enough. Mr. R is a perma-bear and his doomsday montra has gone on long enough. Spring is here. Let's not pretend, let's look at what's changed since six months ago... quite a bit. Mr R still has his head back there. Housing prices are not still declining. Unemployment has peaked. Demand is now at capacity. Banks are in significantly better shape than six months ago. Stress tests released tomorrow will show little to no more capital required. Read the current signs.

swombat 17y ago
I disagree with both of you. I reckon we're still in a dead cat bounce. I don't buy all the doom and gloom about how we're off to some multi-year U-shaped depression, because I think the system is more flexible than it was 80 years ago, and I think the people in charge of the knobs are also more pragmatic. So, I think there'll be recovery, relatively soon, and things will go up again from there. That said, I don't think this current up-turn will last. There's still some rotten stuff hidden away - the banks have just claimed big profits, but that was days after an accounting rule change. I reckon they're still hiding toxic assets and there'll be another series of bank busts before we're out of this mess. My guess, which is based on no economical knowledge whatsoever, is that we'll see a permanent rebound once the DOW hits 4,000. I think this will happen within 6-12 months from now. However, I think that once the rebound does come, things will get better quickly.
- fauigerzigerk 17y ago
  My guess is that we are in a sick cat crawl. The panic is over but US (and UK) consumers will be paying down debt and spend less for a long time to come. And once the economy starts to rebound even slightly, oil will be back up very quickly slowing everything down again. That's my fear anyway.
fauigerzigerk 17y ago
Unemployment has peaked? You are very alone with this prediction. Unemployment always lags behind the economy. If unemployment had peaked, we would be seeing positive GDP numbers right now. And demand being at capacity in the middle of a recession would be very astonishing indeed.
MaysonL 17y ago
I love your satire!

by tsm1528 17y ago

swombat 17y ago

I disagree with both of you. I reckon we're still in a dead cat bounce. I don't buy all the doom and gloom about how we're off to some multi-year U-shaped depression, because I think the system is more flexible than it was 80 years ago, and I think the people in charge of the knobs are also more pragmatic. So, I think there'll be recovery, relatively soon, and things will go up again from there. That said, I don't think this current up-turn will last. There's still some rotten stuff hidden away - the banks have just claimed big profits, but that was days after an accounting rule change. I reckon they're still hiding toxic assets and there'll be another series of bank busts before we're out of this mess. My guess, which is based on no economical knowledge whatsoever, is that we'll see a permanent rebound once the DOW hits 4,000. I think this will happen within 6-12 months from now. However, I think that once the rebound does come, things will get better quickly.

fauigerzigerk 17y ago
My guess is that we are in a sick cat crawl. The panic is over but US (and UK) consumers will be paying down debt and spend less for a long time to come. And once the economy starts to rebound even slightly, oil will be back up very quickly slowing everything down again. That's my fear anyway.

fauigerzigerk 17y ago

Unemployment has peaked? You are very alone with this prediction. Unemployment always lags behind the economy. If unemployment had peaked, we would be seeing positive GDP numbers right now. And demand being at capacity in the middle of a recession would be very astonishing indeed.

MaysonL 17y ago

I love your satire!