I don't buy that explanation. In the 1-2-3 example, there isn't much innovation. It's basically a new UI and scripting support. Most people have no use for the

I don't buy that explanation. In the 1-2-3 example, there isn't much innovation. It's basically a new UI and scripting support. Most people have no use for the latter and the first is a matter of taste. People always look to explain the past in a way that makes sense. However, that leaves no room for contingencies, even though contingency is a powerful force that plays an undeniable role in shaping the future. Machiavelli didn't spend a chapter on the subject because he was such a superstitious guy. If you launch a new product and it has the good fortune to create a positive buzz, then you can take over a market simply by being newer and being liked. You don't need to be better, just different. Without a proper data and a thorough analysis of why people actually preferred 1-2-3 over VisiCalc, this bit of anecdotal evidence is meaningless of the future of Twitter.