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"...the costs will be substantial..." This is an article of faith for the green crowd. I and many others are skeptical of such a claim, especially when tempera

by altoz 13y ago

"...the costs will be substantial..." This is an article of faith for the green crowd. I and many others are skeptical of such a claim, especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years.

jshen 13y ago
"temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years." Please link to a source for this claim. Update: I'm not seeing this drop you are talking about. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/climatechange/2013/590x375_02012255_screen-shot-2013-02-01-at-5.58.35-pm.png http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/c...
- jckt 13y ago
  This is probably relevant http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-the-globe-hasnt-warmed-much-for-the-past-decade-15788 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-the-globe-hasnt-warme... "The answer, according to a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters, is that a lot of it is being stored in the deep ocean, more than a half-mile down[...] [b]ut sooner or later it will inevitably emerge, which means that the current slowdown in warming may well be balanced by a period of rapid warming in a few years — nobody knows how many — from now." I think he meant that the global rate of increase in temperature has dropped, ie temperature has hardly changed in the last 10 years.
  - marshray 13y ago
    > Ordinarily, heat trapped by greenhouse gases would warm the ocean’s surface water, but since warm water floats on top of colder water, the heat would have a hard time percolating to the depths. “You need something to push it down,” Trenberth said. That something could easily be strong prevailing winds, which can literally stir things up — or in this case, down. This article is claiming that "the Globe Hasn’t Warmed Much for the Past Decade" because the wind is blowing the heat energy down into the depths of the ocean?
    - jckt 13y ago
      That's what they think, based on their CFD models. Before reading this I was thinking that, since warming has increased overall liquid sea-water volume globally, more CO2 was being dissolved in the sea or something, and that's why despite higher emissions more of it was being dissolved into the sea than going into the atmosphere. But then there is only so much you can dissolve, and that's why the last ten years of minimal warming is just a plateau.
      - marshray 13y ago
        Do these models yield testable predictions? Will they actually be tested against acceptance criteria defined in advance?
Afforess 13y ago
>This is an article of faith for the green crowd. I and many others are skeptical of such a claim, especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years. Am I reading the graph wrong? http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif Looks like a rise to me. Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
- danielweber 13y ago
  access denied
- redblacktree 13y ago
  It looks flat to me over the last decade. It's hard to tell with such a large time series.
- glenra 13y ago
  The quote you're responding to said "past 10 years". Strictly speaking, that's accurate. You can play with the chart here - this is a chart of an average of several global temperature series over exactly the last 120 months, with trendline: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:120/trend/plot/wti/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:...
beatpanda 13y ago
Your scientific background and a link to your source would be helpful, because the vast majority of people who study this issue disagree with you.
commandar 13y ago
>especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years How do you figure? 2012 was the hottest year on record. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/01/130109-warmest-year-record-2012-global-warming-science-environment-united-states/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/01/130109-warme... Or 2011: >The WMO, part of the United Nations, said the warmest 13 years of average global temperatures have all occurred in the 15 years since 1997. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-climate-conference-idUSTRE7AS0MQ20111129 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-climate-confere...
- danielweber 13y ago
  2012 was the hottest year on record ... for the continental US. Carbon is a global issue. These debates are tiring. (Some) people on both sides will use whatever argument suits the current narrative, even if it disagrees with other arguments they make at later times. Compare what happens during a heat wave or a cold snap.
  - commandar 13y ago
    >.. for the continental US. Fair point. It does, however, ignore the second link which was for global averages. >In both cases, scientists said the 2012 global temperature records further consolidate a pattern of global warming. Each year of the 21st century has ranked among the 14 hottest since record keeping began in 1880. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/2012-10-warmest-years-on-record http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/2012-10-wa... The claim that temperatures have dropped for the past ten years seems to be patently false from the data I'm finding.
    - danielweber 13y ago
      They haven't dropped. Global temperatures have been flat, though. You can see how the article makes a quote that doesn't disagree with that by using weird other metrics. I've seen the climate scientists' explanation for this and why it doesn't disagree with global warming and it doesn't set off my BS detectors (i.e., they seem like good explanations, but there are certainly ways they could lie to me and I couldn't detect it). Their direct statements are a much better source than the media's game of telephone with their reports.
revscat 13y ago
It's not an "article of faith", it is a scientific certainty, and one that we are witnessing happen today, not in some vague future.
whyenot 13y ago
especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years Could you please provide a citation or otherwise indicate where this information is coming from.
- glenra 13y ago
  that temperatures have dropped (or more accurately, shown negligible warming) in "the past 10 years" is pretty easy to check. Um, try this site: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:120/trend/plot/wti/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:... (Note that the "woodfortrees index" is a composite that combines a variety of standard temperature series, the better to avoid arguments as to which series to use. But if you're especially partial to one series or another, you can select those too. eg, here's Hadcru4 global mean: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/plot/ha... ) (the samples are monthly, so specifying "120 samples" gets you exactly ten years, starting and ending near the same (most recent) month.)
ryguytilidie 13y ago
Okay, lets just pretend global warming is 100% certainly non-existant. That being the case, do we still not care about pollution? Have you seen China lately? People can't even go outside on certain days. If you don't believe those costs are substantial than there is simply no talking logic into you.

by altoz 13y ago

jshen 13y ago

"temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years." Please link to a source for this claim. Update: I'm not seeing this drop you are talking about. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/climatechange/2013/590x375_02012255_screen-shot-2013-02-01-at-5.58.35-pm.png http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/c...

jckt 13y ago
This is probably relevant http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-the-globe-hasnt-warmed-much-for-the-past-decade-15788 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-the-globe-hasnt-warme... "The answer, according to a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters, is that a lot of it is being stored in the deep ocean, more than a half-mile down[...] [b]ut sooner or later it will inevitably emerge, which means that the current slowdown in warming may well be balanced by a period of rapid warming in a few years — nobody knows how many — from now." I think he meant that the global rate of increase in temperature has dropped, ie temperature has hardly changed in the last 10 years.
- marshray 13y ago
  > Ordinarily, heat trapped by greenhouse gases would warm the ocean’s surface water, but since warm water floats on top of colder water, the heat would have a hard time percolating to the depths. “You need something to push it down,” Trenberth said. That something could easily be strong prevailing winds, which can literally stir things up — or in this case, down. This article is claiming that "the Globe Hasn’t Warmed Much for the Past Decade" because the wind is blowing the heat energy down into the depths of the ocean?
  - jckt 13y ago
    That's what they think, based on their CFD models. Before reading this I was thinking that, since warming has increased overall liquid sea-water volume globally, more CO2 was being dissolved in the sea or something, and that's why despite higher emissions more of it was being dissolved into the sea than going into the atmosphere. But then there is only so much you can dissolve, and that's why the last ten years of minimal warming is just a plateau.
    - marshray 13y ago
      Do these models yield testable predictions? Will they actually be tested against acceptance criteria defined in advance?

Afforess 13y ago

>This is an article of faith for the green crowd. I and many others are skeptical of such a claim, especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years. Am I reading the graph wrong? http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif Looks like a rise to me. Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

danielweber 13y ago
access denied
redblacktree 13y ago
It looks flat to me over the last decade. It's hard to tell with such a large time series.
glenra 13y ago
The quote you're responding to said "past 10 years". Strictly speaking, that's accurate. You can play with the chart here - this is a chart of an average of several global temperature series over exactly the last 120 months, with trendline: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:120/trend/plot/wti/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:...

beatpanda 13y ago

Your scientific background and a link to your source would be helpful, because the vast majority of people who study this issue disagree with you.

commandar 13y ago

>especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years How do you figure? 2012 was the hottest year on record. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/01/130109-warmest-year-record-2012-global-warming-science-environment-united-states/ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/01/130109-warme... Or 2011: >The WMO, part of the United Nations, said the warmest 13 years of average global temperatures have all occurred in the 15 years since 1997. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-climate-conference-idUSTRE7AS0MQ20111129 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-climate-confere...

danielweber 13y ago
2012 was the hottest year on record ... for the continental US. Carbon is a global issue. These debates are tiring. (Some) people on both sides will use whatever argument suits the current narrative, even if it disagrees with other arguments they make at later times. Compare what happens during a heat wave or a cold snap.
- commandar 13y ago
  >.. for the continental US. Fair point. It does, however, ignore the second link which was for global averages. >In both cases, scientists said the 2012 global temperature records further consolidate a pattern of global warming. Each year of the 21st century has ranked among the 14 hottest since record keeping began in 1880. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/2012-10-warmest-years-on-record http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/16/2012-10-wa... The claim that temperatures have dropped for the past ten years seems to be patently false from the data I'm finding.
  - danielweber 13y ago
    They haven't dropped. Global temperatures have been flat, though. You can see how the article makes a quote that doesn't disagree with that by using weird other metrics. I've seen the climate scientists' explanation for this and why it doesn't disagree with global warming and it doesn't set off my BS detectors (i.e., they seem like good explanations, but there are certainly ways they could lie to me and I couldn't detect it). Their direct statements are a much better source than the media's game of telephone with their reports.

revscat 13y ago

It's not an "article of faith", it is a scientific certainty, and one that we are witnessing happen today, not in some vague future.

whyenot 13y ago

especially when temperatures have dropped despite higher emissions the past 10 years Could you please provide a citation or otherwise indicate where this information is coming from.

glenra 13y ago
that temperatures have dropped (or more accurately, shown negligible warming) in "the past 10 years" is pretty easy to check. Um, try this site: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:120/trend/plot/wti/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/last:120/plot/wti/last:... (Note that the "woodfortrees index" is a composite that combines a variety of standard temperature series, the better to avoid arguments as to which series to use. But if you're especially partial to one series or another, you can select those too. eg, here's Hadcru4 global mean: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/last:120/plot/ha... ) (the samples are monthly, so specifying "120 samples" gets you exactly ten years, starting and ending near the same (most recent) month.)

ryguytilidie 13y ago

Okay, lets just pretend global warming is 100% certainly non-existant. That being the case, do we still not care about pollution? Have you seen China lately? People can't even go outside on certain days. If you don't believe those costs are substantial than there is simply no talking logic into you.