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That's a rather pessimistic view that reminds me of past views that proved too pessimistic; I don't think we'll slam into anything. Solar costs continue to drop

That's a rather pessimistic view that reminds me of past views that proved too pessimistic; I don't think we'll slam into anything. Solar costs continue to drop exponentially[0] and it's possible that it will be cheaper than fossil fuels within a couple of decades. Whether it gets there or not, it will likely keep dropping, and the "dinosaur farts" won't run out[1], they'll just rise in price to meet the cost of extraction until other things are more viable. Rising prices spur demand for more efficient uses, and eventually through a combination of reduced demand and alternative energy sources, we all switch over without a big crisis. Not saying it's the guaranteed or even most likely scenario, but in my opinion we're not so doomed we need to be "very, very lucky". [0]http://azizonomics.com/2013/01/25/when-solar-becomes-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels/ http://azizonomics.com/2013/01/25/when-solar-becomes-cheaper... [1]http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/05/what-if-we-never-run-out-of-oil/309294/ http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/05/what-if-...

beat 13y ago
I think solar/wind becoming cheaper than fossil fuel substantially before the global Hubbert's Peak would fall under my "very, very lucky" clause. It's nice to hope for, and I do have my hopes up. But. :(
VLM 13y ago
"I don't think we'll slam into anything." The traditional response is something along the lines of "the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone". Other than Easter Isle we don't have much experience with this and similar things have not turned out well.
mark-r 13y ago
No matter how cheap solar energy becomes, it won't be a complete solution until the energy storage problem is solved. I don't see the same rate of progress on that. If you can't store the energy you'll need a backup that can supply the missing power when the sun isn't shining - you'll need to keep building the old fashioned power plants even if you don't run them as often. Unfortunately there's no guarantee that prices will rise at the time and pace required for efficient uptake of new technologies. The easiest way to reduce demand is to tank the economy. We got a taste of that in 2008, and I'm not looking forward to it happening again.

beat 13y ago

I think solar/wind becoming cheaper than fossil fuel substantially before the global Hubbert's Peak would fall under my "very, very lucky" clause. It's nice to hope for, and I do have my hopes up. But. :(

VLM 13y ago

"I don't think we'll slam into anything." The traditional response is something along the lines of "the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone". Other than Easter Isle we don't have much experience with this and similar things have not turned out well.

mark-r 13y ago

No matter how cheap solar energy becomes, it won't be a complete solution until the energy storage problem is solved. I don't see the same rate of progress on that. If you can't store the energy you'll need a backup that can supply the missing power when the sun isn't shining - you'll need to keep building the old fashioned power plants even if you don't run them as often. Unfortunately there's no guarantee that prices will rise at the time and pace required for efficient uptake of new technologies. The easiest way to reduce demand is to tank the economy. We got a taste of that in 2008, and I'm not looking forward to it happening again.