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I bet $100k that Marcus Badperson will die on the morning of 15 June 2013"; best way to collect is to do the deed yourself (or subcontract.) But don't you need
by asdkl234890 13y ago
I bet $100k that Marcus Badperson will die on the morning of 15 June 2013"; best way to collect is to do the deed yourself (or subcontract.)
But don't you need someone else to take the other side of the bet?
You can't just bet X and get more. You can only get what Y bets in opposition. Assuming no one else agrees with you and makes the same bet, because then you'd have to share what Y put down.
And who's going to be the opposing side in these bets?
I happen to know Marcus Badperson is a janitor for the federal serve and will spend all day on June 15th cleaning the gold bars inside the safest safe in the world. So I bet a billion dollars he does NOT die between the hours of 9am and 5pm on June 15th. Unless someone else bets more than a billion, the best I can do is simply collect the same billion I put down.
I was hoping to find an elaboration of who could be the counter party in the Wikipedia page, but nope nothing there.
I think the assassination market is very probable if you completely skip the question of who's the counter party. Or if you have no idea how betting and payouts work in the first place. Otherwise this "assassination market" is total bullshit.
- rdl 13y agoThe idea is that by taking the other side of the bet, you are incenting your counterparty to do the crime. The bet is essentially an offer to do murder. If you bet me you'll kill Mullah Omar for $10k tomorrow morning, I'll max out a credit card to be your counterparty. By being specific about the time/place/manner of death, you can avoid the free riders to some degree. At least, all the ones who weren't betting on you specifically. If I find a killer credible, I'd The whole point of structuring it as bets vs bounties is plausible deniability. A person contracting for an assassination is looking to lose money and gain dead Mullahs, whereas a killer is trying to trade Mullah killing for money. Uninvolved speculators are just betting based on the credibity of specific proposed-killers, I think. It would be easy for killers or contractors to manipulate the market to throw them, I think.