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You don't need AI to see the number of programmers required on a project to exponentially shrink. Five years ago to build a simple video chat you needed a team

by Sven7 13y ago

You don't need AI to see the number of programmers required on a project to exponentially shrink. Five years ago to build a simple video chat you needed a team of hardcore programmers with expertise in video, audio, networking, real time protocols and telecom. Today it takes a couple of lines of javascript through WebRTC.

greenyoda 13y ago
But aren't users demanding more and more features from software as time goes on, and won't this added size and complexity create additional work for programmers even though the stuff we did in the previous release is now easier to do? For example, compare the amount of software that went into a phone ten years ago with the gigabytes of software that sits on a smartphone today, or the complexity of the UI on a phone ten years ago vs. today. Not to mention the increased functionality of the servers at the back-ends of all these apps. Also, if you're starting a project from scratch, you can use the latest and most streamlined technology. But if you're supporting a large code base (millions of lines of code) and adding features to it, you can't just suddenly re-write all your code to use the latest techniques. Also, you may be locked into a technology by your customers. For example, in the enterprise software space, lots of customers have a huge investment in Java application servers on which all their software runs, and if you want to compete in that space, it's easier to sell them a Java-based system than it is to convince them to install and learn to support a Ruby-based system just to run your product. And there's probably much more code (and programmers) in enterprise software -- think of all the software that supports banks, insurance companies, hospitals, government agencies, pharmaceutical companies, etc. -- than in the start-up world. I don't think AI is going to make a dent in that huge, complex pile of legacy software any time soon.
- Sven7 13y ago
  Look at state govt employees in the US. A major portion of this labor force is involved in managing data. Even if you take just the "knowledge workers", the number still would be in the hundreds of thousands range. Not counting outsourcing. Facebook manages the data of 1 billion people, spanning some 200 countries with 5000 employees. No great AI involved. Glad you bought up enterprise, most of those programmers now come from Indian IT companies. The only sector still employing american programmers is defence. Now if you are right and all those hospitals, pharma companies, insurance companies, banks etc require more and more features to be built for their customers then why do we see this http://www.indianexpress.com/news/its-time-to-move-on-as-tech-cos-put-brakes-on-hiring/1105812/ http://www.indianexpress.com/news/its-time-to-move-on-as-tec... Why do we see Infosys tanking after almost a decade of being a darling of the stock market. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/infosys-investors-balk-as-ceo-says-worst-over-corporate-india.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/infosys-investors-b... Of course its all not happening overnight, there are some legacy systems that are still too expensive to replace but it is happening.

by Sven7 13y ago

greenyoda 13y ago

But aren't users demanding more and more features from software as time goes on, and won't this added size and complexity create additional work for programmers even though the stuff we did in the previous release is now easier to do? For example, compare the amount of software that went into a phone ten years ago with the gigabytes of software that sits on a smartphone today, or the complexity of the UI on a phone ten years ago vs. today. Not to mention the increased functionality of the servers at the back-ends of all these apps. Also, if you're starting a project from scratch, you can use the latest and most streamlined technology. But if you're supporting a large code base (millions of lines of code) and adding features to it, you can't just suddenly re-write all your code to use the latest techniques. Also, you may be locked into a technology by your customers. For example, in the enterprise software space, lots of customers have a huge investment in Java application servers on which all their software runs, and if you want to compete in that space, it's easier to sell them a Java-based system than it is to convince them to install and learn to support a Ruby-based system just to run your product. And there's probably much more code (and programmers) in enterprise software -- think of all the software that supports banks, insurance companies, hospitals, government agencies, pharmaceutical companies, etc. -- than in the start-up world. I don't think AI is going to make a dent in that huge, complex pile of legacy software any time soon.

Sven7 13y ago
Look at state govt employees in the US. A major portion of this labor force is involved in managing data. Even if you take just the "knowledge workers", the number still would be in the hundreds of thousands range. Not counting outsourcing. Facebook manages the data of 1 billion people, spanning some 200 countries with 5000 employees. No great AI involved. Glad you bought up enterprise, most of those programmers now come from Indian IT companies. The only sector still employing american programmers is defence. Now if you are right and all those hospitals, pharma companies, insurance companies, banks etc require more and more features to be built for their customers then why do we see this http://www.indianexpress.com/news/its-time-to-move-on-as-tech-cos-put-brakes-on-hiring/1105812/ http://www.indianexpress.com/news/its-time-to-move-on-as-tec... Why do we see Infosys tanking after almost a decade of being a darling of the stock market. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/infosys-investors-balk-as-ceo-says-worst-over-corporate-india.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/infosys-investors-b... Of course its all not happening overnight, there are some legacy systems that are still too expensive to replace but it is happening.