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IMO, there is some market for private self driving cars at almost any price, if it's usable and legal. The minimum volume at which they can be produced, legaliz
by netcan 13y ago
IMO, there is some market for private self driving cars at almost any price, if it's usable and legal. The minimum volume at which they can be produced, legalized may be too high though for any kind of niche luxury market though.
The path to substantially replacing human driven cars though is (I think) some sort of driverless taxis. The price where driverless taxis take over is probably somewhere around where the cost per km of driverless is lower. That could be pretty high. Assuming other operational costs are similar to regular taxis $150k-$200k for a driverless vehicle that lasts 3-5 years sounds viable.
Driverless cars have been sitting around the edge of our consciousness as "experimental but interesting" for a long time. But, the economic changes they introduce are potentially enormous, wide. I think there's a good chance that privately owned cars become rare, for example. General purpose cars may go away. A golf cart is just fine for going 5-10 miles in urban traffic.
This space is big enough for Google/Ford/IBM sized giants to emerge in. Makers of the cars, makers of the driver, makers of the UI, operators of the taxi companies, who knows what else. Maybe makers of digital roadsigns. Maybe selecting destinations from a screen creates the kind of effect Adwords has had.
- kriro 13y agoSelf driving trucks would be interesting, especially in the US where there are pretty long routes that don't need much driver interaction. Stuff with fixed and repeating routes like buses (or airport shuttle buses) are also interesting imo It would also be cool if down the road (pun not intended) a care could detect if the driver is drunk and switch to selfdrive mode.
- netcan 13y agoThe thing that makes me think of taxis is the the driver cost/total cost ratio is high, so removing the driver is a big deal. Buses and long haul trucks are already pretty highly optimized in that the driver's time is a relatively smaller component of the total cost. Also, the total cost is much lower.
- devrelm 13y ago> A golf cart is just fine for going 5-10 miles in urban traffic. I hadn't thought of this. Imagine Google buying garages all over NYC and filling them with driverless Smart cars (or similar). A button is added to your phone's Google Maps app, so that in addition to "Get Directions" and "Navigate", you also have the option of "Pick Me Up". So, you search for where you want to go on Google Maps and tap "Pick Me Up", with the option of telling it how many people are in your party. Within 5 minutes enough Smart cars for your party stop within 20 feet of you, even if you've already started walking, thanks to your phone's GPS. You get in the car, which has no steering wheel, and touch "Go" on the in-dash touch-screen to start the car driving to your destination. I could get used to that.
- netcan 13y agoExactly. Driverless is not just doing things the way we have been but without operating the car. It changes everything. The economics. The culture. etc.