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>> This is also why in the real world the fed can triple the size of the money supply without causing inflation. Of course the austrians predict, over and over

by w0utert 13y ago

>> This is also why in the real world the fed can triple the size of the money supply without causing inflation. Of course the austrians predict, over and over again, that runaway inflation is going to happen Any Time Now. But it doesn't and it won't. What makes you so sure no runaway inflation will occur? Just because you haven't seen it yourself yet, it's unimaginable? You're right about two things: inflation happens when more money is competing for the same goods, and increasing the money supply does not by definition cause inflation. The conclusion you are drawing ('the fed can triple the money supply without triggering inflation, and runaway inflation will never happen') doesn't follow from that though. Yes, all the money pumped in the economy is sitting on bank accounts right now, interest rate is near-zero and nobody is investing (throwing easy money at Wall Street for short time profits, jacking up the DJIA doesn't count as 'investing'). That's the sentiment right now. What do you think will happen when the economy picks up some steam, people get more confidence, and investments and consumption goes up? The tricky bit about 'runaway inflation' is the 'runaway' part. You can only control inflation by very careful monetary policy, because economies are like oil tankers: they change direction very slowly, but if they start moving you can't stop them anymore. Runaway inflation doesn't occur when you increase the money supply, because when you are increasing the money supply, it's because the oil tanker has almost stopped, and you want to get it going. The question is what happens if it picks up too much speed further down the line. Maybe you don't believe in dollar hyperinflation, but the observation that 'austrians predict runaway inflation over and over and it never happens' is simply wrong. It didn't happen for dollar, euro or yen, but it happened in Weimar, Zimbabwe, Urugay, Argentina, all within 100 years time.

gizmo 13y ago
> What makes you so sure no runaway inflation will occur? Because when the economy picks up the Fed will decrease the size of the monetary base by selling treasury bills. The economy isn't going to pick up overnight (high unemployment, low demand, etc) so the Fed will have enough time to reduce the monetary base as needed. Hyperinflation can happen, of course. But not through expansion of the monetary base in a liquidity trap. Austrian economists claim the opposite, and even go as far as saying that there is True Inflation, but that the gov't cheats in the way prices are measured. Again, completely silly. Mainstream economics explains why inflation occurred in those countries. Those cases have been thoroughly studied and are mostly well understood.
- w0utert 13y ago
  >> Because when the economy picks up the Fed will decrease the size of the monetary base by selling treasury bills. That's how it has always worked in the past: by extremely careful control of the money supply, through selling or buying treasuries. That's not what's happening right now. The FED is not just buying treasuries, but also RMBS, derivates, even shares, all at unprecedented scale, and all while keeping interest rates at near-zero. And let's not forget the billions of dollars used to 'save' banks: ultimately, the US government has to finance these by either raising taxes (not happening) or borrowing more from the FED, which means that effectively the 'bad loans' and their derivates that almost brought down these banks are also financed by an increase of the money supply. Your assumption the FED can cool down the economy without completely killing it by huge interest rate hikes and sellof of US treasuries -throwing millions of people in unsurmountable debt and completely devastating all confidence in US treasuries as solid investments- as soon as the money velocity goes up and inflation starts to rise, is naive at best. Central banks around the world are very aware of the monster they are creating and the risk that it will lead to a world-wide currency devaluation war. Just read between the lines of public statements about Japan trying to devaluate the Yen, or China artificially keeping the Yuan as low as possible for years to protect their cheap export strategy. >> Mainstream economics explains why inflation occurred in those countries. Those cases have been thoroughly studied and are mostly well understood. While the factors that caused the monetary collapse in the countries I mentioned were different, the ultimate effects are comparable: an unmaintainable monetary status-quo leading in a loss of confidence in government-controlled currency. I'm not sure why you think 'This time is different (tm)' for the US, Europe, or Japan.

by w0utert 13y ago

gizmo 13y ago

> What makes you so sure no runaway inflation will occur? Because when the economy picks up the Fed will decrease the size of the monetary base by selling treasury bills. The economy isn't going to pick up overnight (high unemployment, low demand, etc) so the Fed will have enough time to reduce the monetary base as needed. Hyperinflation can happen, of course. But not through expansion of the monetary base in a liquidity trap. Austrian economists claim the opposite, and even go as far as saying that there is True Inflation, but that the gov't cheats in the way prices are measured. Again, completely silly. Mainstream economics explains why inflation occurred in those countries. Those cases have been thoroughly studied and are mostly well understood.

w0utert 13y ago
>> Because when the economy picks up the Fed will decrease the size of the monetary base by selling treasury bills. That's how it has always worked in the past: by extremely careful control of the money supply, through selling or buying treasuries. That's not what's happening right now. The FED is not just buying treasuries, but also RMBS, derivates, even shares, all at unprecedented scale, and all while keeping interest rates at near-zero. And let's not forget the billions of dollars used to 'save' banks: ultimately, the US government has to finance these by either raising taxes (not happening) or borrowing more from the FED, which means that effectively the 'bad loans' and their derivates that almost brought down these banks are also financed by an increase of the money supply. Your assumption the FED can cool down the economy without completely killing it by huge interest rate hikes and sellof of US treasuries -throwing millions of people in unsurmountable debt and completely devastating all confidence in US treasuries as solid investments- as soon as the money velocity goes up and inflation starts to rise, is naive at best. Central banks around the world are very aware of the monster they are creating and the risk that it will lead to a world-wide currency devaluation war. Just read between the lines of public statements about Japan trying to devaluate the Yen, or China artificially keeping the Yuan as low as possible for years to protect their cheap export strategy. >> Mainstream economics explains why inflation occurred in those countries. Those cases have been thoroughly studied and are mostly well understood. While the factors that caused the monetary collapse in the countries I mentioned were different, the ultimate effects are comparable: an unmaintainable monetary status-quo leading in a loss of confidence in government-controlled currency. I'm not sure why you think 'This time is different (tm)' for the US, Europe, or Japan.