I don't disagree -- I think of markets as generally anti-inductive, so over-thinking things is a definite risk. And some quants have the habit of developing mod

I don't disagree -- I think of markets as generally anti-inductive, so over-thinking things is a definite risk. And some quants have the habit of developing models so complex that when conditions change, they can't figure out how to adjust them. I'm just saying that Buffett's quote sounds like the abstract from some scientific paper. I'm surprised he didn't include a p-value.