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Man, the mainstream press (NYT and WSJ in particular, since their Japan reporting is still around and regular) has been very quick to grab their Jump to Conclus
by blakerson 13y ago
Man, the mainstream press (NYT and WSJ in particular, since their Japan reporting is still around and regular) has been very quick to grab their Jump to Conclusion Mats just because the markets have responded strongly to a drastic change.
Granted, it is news that Japan has enacted a drastic change of any kind, but the fat lady hasn't even started warming up her vocal chords yet.
From this article:
"Most crucially, there are signs that the policies may be breaking Japan’s debilitating spiral of deflation. In April, Mr. Kuroda declared that Japan would achieve an inflation target of 2 percent within two years"
Read: There's a target to get out of Japan's debilitating spiral of deflation. Not that it's happened; there's merely a target.
"Is the new monetary policy working? It hasn’t been in place long, and no up-to-date inflation data is yet in hand."
Read: Radical policy has happened, yes, but we have no idea if it's effective (yet).
"It may give the economy a short-term boost, but in a speech in April, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that Japan’s fiscal policy “looks increasingly unsustainable,” saying its debt-to-G.D.P. ratio is now nearing an extraordinarily high 245 percent."
Read: No reading between the lines; the long-term risk is of major concern.
Placement of this point: 14th paragraph of the story.
Worse still, politicians who respond to international press will see the political capital this risky policy has bought Abe. In Japan there's already talk of him moving further to the right, once again adding fuel to the nationalist fire (despite already having gotten his popularity back with this massive QE). I fear for this experiment creating worldwide financial risk (due to the size of Japan's economy and its image as a safe harbor) and an even bigger political risk worldwide.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]