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1. A lot of people don't care about the DOE loan. But those who don't like the government investing in private enterprise probably aren't going to run out and b

1. A lot of people don't care about the DOE loan. But those who don't like the government investing in private enterprise probably aren't going to run out and buy a new Tesla just because the loan is being paid off. Net-net: perceptions of Tesla are not likely to change based on the loan repayment. As for Tesla leaching off the government, it is important to note that $85m of Tesla's revenue in the last quarter came from regulatory credits. The vast majority, ~$67m, came from California's zero-emission program. All told, 15% of Tesla's revenue came from state and federal credits. Forget politics and perception: the impact of regulatory and tax credits on the company's finances and sales prospects over time is something any long-term Tesla investor should thoroughly understand. 2. Tesla is smart to raise capital now while money is still so cheap thanks to an almost unprecedented compression of risk premiums. The odds that capital will become more expensive in the next several years is certainly higher than the odds that it will become much cheaper. But raising capital doesn't guarantee that capital will be deployed effectively. Celebrating the capital raise without acknowledging that there's execution risk is like celebrating a championship before the season has even started. 3. Elon Musk's obvious confidence in Tesla is a good thing, but you should not oversimplify the details of his stock purchases. Business Insider has more on this at http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-borrows-150-million-to-buy-tesla-2013-5 http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-borrows-150-million.... 4. Raising capital for companies is one of the things that firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley do. As for Morgan Stanley analysts taking a positive view on Tesla's prospects, consider that in July 2008, Morgan Stanley was advising clients to buy Lehman Brothers stock because "we think near-term risk of incremental write-downs is balanced by solid liquidity and capital footing." Tesla may or may not be successful long-term, and its stock may or may not be a good investment at current prices, but I think your analysis here is akin to looking at the exterior of the vehicle without examining what's under the hood.

revelation 13y ago
Credit sales do not come from government money. They work similar to Emissions trading, that is, other manufacturers who do not produce clean vehicles have to buy them. So all that money is coming from other manufacturers. (ironically, many of them are of course giant behemoths who have been given massive direct subsidies by their respective governments) That said, Tesla clearly has a brilliant track record of putting money to use. They built a frickin fully electric luxury sedan in 2 years on a $450M budget.
- 7Figures2Commas 13y ago
  I think you're missing the point: a direct subsidy is not the only way that businesses derive revenue from government. The ZEV credits are granted to Tesla by California. By regulation, other car manufacturers have effectively been forced to purchase these, giving them value. Put simply: these credits only exist and have value because of government. You can play games with semantics, and political pundits can argue about the merits of programs like California's, but those doing due diligence on Tesla should understand the regulations and how these credits may be valued in the future. For instance, if more auto manufacturers develop electric vehicles, the value of the credits will likely decrease over time, perhaps substantially, while the competition in the EV market will at the same time increase. Will Tesla suffer substantially in this scenario? Maybe or maybe not, but I haven't seen many analyses of the company delve into this, at least around here. As for Tesla's track record: I think one can be truly impressed by what the company has accomplished thus far from a technology perspective without jumping to the premature conclusion that the company's investment has produced a viable long-term business.
  - revelation 13y ago
    Yes of course, but theres a very big difference between a direct subsidy with hard cash (or a loan guarantee) and an open-to-all incentive system, not last in public perception. Your wording simply suggested to me that you thought these were somehow backed with government money. I'm sorry if I misinterpreted here. Musk has said in conference calls that their 25% margin target is not predicated (at all) on credit revenue, but he can't magically make money appear, so that remains to be seen. There is a very worthwhile recap of the regulatory credits systems here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulatory-Credits-How-BMW-and-Daimler-Will-Fund-Tesla-s-Conquest-of-the-World http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulato...
    - damoncali 13y ago
      It's semantics. The net effect is that the government forces the transfer - It's no different than if they had taxed it and granted it.
dave1619 13y ago
1. I think my point about repaying the loan and changing perception toward perception is largely geared toward conservative lawmakers and politicians. Some (like Romney and Palin) have grouped Tesla with the likes of Solyndra, calling them "losers". Even some of the public have the perception that Tesla received bailout money (which isn't true because the DOE loan is separate). But for the public it was around the same time as the government bailout of GM, etc. So, paying off the loan clears up misperceptions, and this can help their case with being able to sell directly to consumers in states such as Texas and N Carolina (with their bills being voted on). 2. Totally agree Tesla was smart to do it now and agree that execution isn't guaranteeing success. But money in the hands of a wise person can really accelerate a roadmap and enlarge success. I personally think Tesla is at an inflection point where the money will be very well spent and will accelerate growth and demand. 3. Regarding Elon Musk's purchase, it's true he's borrowing a bunch of money but even that still signals his confidence in the stock and its current price. And I think that's overall good to ensure investors since the stock has been very volatile of late. 4. It's true investment banks have made terrible mistakes in the past, but still lots of investors and institutions are influenced by the top investment banks. Fidelity owns $1.5b of common stock and Morgan Stanley owns $500m of TSLA common stock (as of 3/31/13, http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings). Lots of institutions and funds are starting to invest in TSLA and this is providing upward pressure on the stock over time (especially if TSLA keeps meeting/surpassing expectations. The next big milestone for Tesla is reaching 25% gross margin (which is rarely had in the auto industry). Elon Musk is promising they'll reach this milestone 4th quarter this year. If they reach it this year, it is nothing short of miraculous.
- damoncali 13y ago
  The next big milestone for Tesla is reaching 25% gross margin (which is rarely had in the auto industry). Elon Musk is promising they'll reach this milestone 4th quarter this year. If they reach it this year, it is nothing short of miraculous. I would say so, considering they're at 5% now. Edit: Strike that. It's actually 2%. Musk had this to say: "I am highly confident that we will have a gross margin of at least 25%, and — I mean, the emphasis on at least. I think we will do better than those numbers. So, I want to be very clear about that." The man is all in. I'll give him that.

revelation 13y ago

Credit sales do not come from government money. They work similar to Emissions trading, that is, other manufacturers who do not produce clean vehicles have to buy them. So all that money is coming from other manufacturers. (ironically, many of them are of course giant behemoths who have been given massive direct subsidies by their respective governments) That said, Tesla clearly has a brilliant track record of putting money to use. They built a frickin fully electric luxury sedan in 2 years on a $450M budget.

7Figures2Commas 13y ago
I think you're missing the point: a direct subsidy is not the only way that businesses derive revenue from government. The ZEV credits are granted to Tesla by California. By regulation, other car manufacturers have effectively been forced to purchase these, giving them value. Put simply: these credits only exist and have value because of government. You can play games with semantics, and political pundits can argue about the merits of programs like California's, but those doing due diligence on Tesla should understand the regulations and how these credits may be valued in the future. For instance, if more auto manufacturers develop electric vehicles, the value of the credits will likely decrease over time, perhaps substantially, while the competition in the EV market will at the same time increase. Will Tesla suffer substantially in this scenario? Maybe or maybe not, but I haven't seen many analyses of the company delve into this, at least around here. As for Tesla's track record: I think one can be truly impressed by what the company has accomplished thus far from a technology perspective without jumping to the premature conclusion that the company's investment has produced a viable long-term business.
- revelation 13y ago
  Yes of course, but theres a very big difference between a direct subsidy with hard cash (or a loan guarantee) and an open-to-all incentive system, not last in public perception. Your wording simply suggested to me that you thought these were somehow backed with government money. I'm sorry if I misinterpreted here. Musk has said in conference calls that their 25% margin target is not predicated (at all) on credit revenue, but he can't magically make money appear, so that remains to be seen. There is a very worthwhile recap of the regulatory credits systems here: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulatory-Credits-How-BMW-and-Daimler-Will-Fund-Tesla-s-Conquest-of-the-World http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16357-Regulato...
  - damoncali 13y ago
    It's semantics. The net effect is that the government forces the transfer - It's no different than if they had taxed it and granted it.

dave1619 13y ago

1. I think my point about repaying the loan and changing perception toward perception is largely geared toward conservative lawmakers and politicians. Some (like Romney and Palin) have grouped Tesla with the likes of Solyndra, calling them "losers". Even some of the public have the perception that Tesla received bailout money (which isn't true because the DOE loan is separate). But for the public it was around the same time as the government bailout of GM, etc. So, paying off the loan clears up misperceptions, and this can help their case with being able to sell directly to consumers in states such as Texas and N Carolina (with their bills being voted on). 2. Totally agree Tesla was smart to do it now and agree that execution isn't guaranteeing success. But money in the hands of a wise person can really accelerate a roadmap and enlarge success. I personally think Tesla is at an inflection point where the money will be very well spent and will accelerate growth and demand. 3. Regarding Elon Musk's purchase, it's true he's borrowing a bunch of money but even that still signals his confidence in the stock and its current price. And I think that's overall good to ensure investors since the stock has been very volatile of late. 4. It's true investment banks have made terrible mistakes in the past, but still lots of investors and institutions are influenced by the top investment banks. Fidelity owns $1.5b of common stock and Morgan Stanley owns $500m of TSLA common stock (as of 3/31/13, http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings). Lots of institutions and funds are starting to invest in TSLA and this is providing upward pressure on the stock over time (especially if TSLA keeps meeting/surpassing expectations. The next big milestone for Tesla is reaching 25% gross margin (which is rarely had in the auto industry). Elon Musk is promising they'll reach this milestone 4th quarter this year. If they reach it this year, it is nothing short of miraculous.

damoncali 13y ago
The next big milestone for Tesla is reaching 25% gross margin (which is rarely had in the auto industry). Elon Musk is promising they'll reach this milestone 4th quarter this year. If they reach it this year, it is nothing short of miraculous. I would say so, considering they're at 5% now. Edit: Strike that. It's actually 2%. Musk had this to say: "I am highly confident that we will have a gross margin of at least 25%, and — I mean, the emphasis on at least. I think we will do better than those numbers. So, I want to be very clear about that." The man is all in. I'll give him that.