4 ms·

If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? Or, put another way: put a dol

If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? Or, put another way: put a dollar value on a speculative Yahoo effort to attract a user base the size and demographic composition of tumblr's. Don't forget to price in the risk of failure.

hcarvalhoalves 13y ago
The point is, since when eyeballs started being worth so much? Isn't it proven already that users are like butterflies in the hand (you can't squeeze them, but let loose they fly away)? Myspace is there to prove that being king today doesn't say s* about your position in ten years. This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users, first deficit since launch.
- onedev 13y ago
  How much of that 1.4 million is due to people dying? Global churn affects your userbase when you have a userbase as insanely massive as Facebook's.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - drgath 13y ago
    54 million people die each year (150k / day) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate
    - onedev 13y ago
      So the fact that 1.4 million people "left" doesn't really mean anything then. Also, according to all statistics, Facebook has actually been GROWING. They have 1.11 billion users now compared to less than 1 billion last year. Something like a 26% growth if I recall. Come on people, there are only a finite number of internet connected human beings on this planet. Growth HAS to slow down at some point. They're not gonna double their userbase YoY if they already have over 1bn people on their service....that'd literally be impossible.
- Steko 13y ago
  "This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users" http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/01/facebook-earnings-graphs/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/01/facebook-earnings-graphs/ Just to add some context, overall up 20%+ first quarter over prior year Q1. Granted flat in the first world and I could believe a small net loss but I don't see it in these numbers.
  - hcarvalhoalves 13y ago
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-loses-14-million-active-users-in-us-2013-01-15 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-loses-14-million-a...
    - Steko 13y ago
      http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/04/29/socialbakers-denies-report-that-millions-of-users-have-left-facebook-claims-there-is-no-story/ http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/04/29/socialbakers-denies... I'm sure FB does their best to lean on their metrics and spin the best story but at the end of the day they are publicly traded and those charts are not too ambiguous. But sure, some of those accounts are fake every year. So a nearly flat gain in the US/Canada could well be a loss in actual humans using the service like they are meant to. I don't have a FB account myself because reasons and so I'm sympathetic to the idea that they may have peaked. Just wanted to give some balance.
coldtea 13y ago
>If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? What kind of bizarro logic is this? For one, something being worthless doesn't mean it is also common. There are rare and difficult to attain things that are also worthless. Second, we're discussing monetary worth here. That is, if you get something back for your 1.1 billion dollars. A service giving you free money would also have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers. But it would be worse than worthless.
- jessedhillon 13y ago
  Oh, I see you only read half my comment before responding. Try the other half now.

hcarvalhoalves 13y ago

The point is, since when eyeballs started being worth so much? Isn't it proven already that users are like butterflies in the hand (you can't squeeze them, but let loose they fly away)? Myspace is there to prove that being king today doesn't say s* about your position in ten years. This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users, first deficit since launch.

onedev 13y ago
How much of that 1.4 million is due to people dying? Global churn affects your userbase when you have a userbase as insanely massive as Facebook's.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- drgath 13y ago
  54 million people die each year (150k / day) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate
  - onedev 13y ago
    So the fact that 1.4 million people "left" doesn't really mean anything then. Also, according to all statistics, Facebook has actually been GROWING. They have 1.11 billion users now compared to less than 1 billion last year. Something like a 26% growth if I recall. Come on people, there are only a finite number of internet connected human beings on this planet. Growth HAS to slow down at some point. They're not gonna double their userbase YoY if they already have over 1bn people on their service....that'd literally be impossible.
Steko 13y ago
"This year Facebook lost 1.4 million users" http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/01/facebook-earnings-graphs/ http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/01/facebook-earnings-graphs/ Just to add some context, overall up 20%+ first quarter over prior year Q1. Granted flat in the first world and I could believe a small net loss but I don't see it in these numbers.
- hcarvalhoalves 13y ago
  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-loses-14-million-active-users-in-us-2013-01-15 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-loses-14-million-a...
  - Steko 13y ago
    http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/04/29/socialbakers-denies-report-that-millions-of-users-have-left-facebook-claims-there-is-no-story/ http://thenextweb.com/insider/2013/04/29/socialbakers-denies... I'm sure FB does their best to lean on their metrics and spin the best story but at the end of the day they are publicly traded and those charts are not too ambiguous. But sure, some of those accounts are fake every year. So a nearly flat gain in the US/Canada could well be a loss in actual humans using the service like they are meant to. I don't have a FB account myself because reasons and so I'm sympathetic to the idea that they may have peaked. Just wanted to give some balance.

coldtea 13y ago

>If acquiring millions of users is so worthless, why don't we all have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers? What kind of bizarro logic is this? For one, something being worthless doesn't mean it is also common. There are rare and difficult to attain things that are also worthless. Second, we're discussing monetary worth here. That is, if you get something back for your 1.1 billion dollars. A service giving you free money would also have 100k+ monthly page views and fantastic engagement numbers. But it would be worse than worthless.

jessedhillon 13y ago
Oh, I see you only read half my comment before responding. Try the other half now.