All of those examples pose threats, but none of them is guaranteed to overtake the corresponding Microsoft product. Microsoft isn't sitting still, it's rapidly

All of those examples pose threats, but none of them is guaranteed to overtake the corresponding Microsoft product. Microsoft isn't sitting still, it's rapidly adding features to each of its products (e.g. Office 365 and the Office web apps, adding things like StreamInsight and Hekaton to SQL Server, etc.) Eclipse has been around for a long time and hasn't hurt Visual Studio yet. It's definitely possible that some Microsoft products will be disrupted, but they haven't put all of their eggs in one basket. Besides, Microsoft created enough successful new businesses over the last 10 years that I wouldn't bet against them doing the same in the next 10.