Let's use your equation with k = 20, alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1. This gives the probability of a person being assaulted as => 1 - pow(1 - alpha, kbeta(1 - alph

Let's use your equation with k = 20, alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1. This gives the probability of a person being assaulted as => 1 - pow(1 - alpha, kbeta(1 - alpha)) => 1 - pow(0.5, 20 * 0.1 * 0.5) => 1 - pow(0.5, 1) => 0.5 There's a 50% chance that a person will be assaulted. Divide by the number of women (10) gives a probability of 0.05 that a particular woman will be assaulted. Now let's do the same thing, but changing alpha to 0.05 1 - pow(0.95, 20 * 0.1 * 0.95) => 1 - pow(0.95, 1.9) => 0.09 However as there is only one woman , that 0.09 probability is all her. In other words her odds of being assaulted have just about doubled.