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Tomorrow's Eurovision final forecasted with Bayesian statistics
- emson 13y agoI like it - we built an app for Eurovision where we capture the user sentiment for a particular song. We call it the "worm". Anyway this blog article explains more: https://thelab.o2.com/2013/05/1000-thumbs-up-for-our-eurovision-commentary-app/ https://thelab.o2.com/2013/05/1000-thumbs-up-for-our-eurovis...
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- androidb 13y agoEurovision is biased so why watch it? An older article but still applicable http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050516/full/news050516-13.html http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050516/full/news050516-13.ht...
- moondowner 13y agoThe songs, the choreography, the kitsch, you just can't miss that :)
- tobiasu 13y agoI would rather stab myself in the eyes with a spoon.
- walshemj 13y agoWell for UK watching it to enjoy Terry Wogans (and now Graham nortons) snarky/camp commentary is the main point.
- JonnieCache 13y agoNorton doesn't drink anywhere near enough whiskey during the event to even touch Wogan's eurovision legacy.
- walshemj 13y agoTrue but he hasn't had the decades of exposure that Terry had
- arethuza 13y agoTo have a party? http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0070hvg/features/party http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0070hvg/features/party http://www.joel.co.uk/eurovision.php http://www.joel.co.uk/eurovision.php
- sentenza 13y agoYes, that's why Germany never wins. Or Finland. Or Israel. So I'm a physicist too and let me tell you: Take these calculations with a grain of salt. It is very easy to underestimate the complexity of what actual people do. Voting blocks exist and they do skew the results, but they are not strong enough to determine the winner alone, despite what many commentators in the third world of Eurovision (UK, Germany) think. So far, no song has won Eurovision without getting a lot of points from countries outside its alleged voting block. Other biases in the system are also present, such as an unfair advantage for western europeans due to the juries, and the four orders in magnitude difference between vote weight. If you watch it (or make simulations on it) without the intention of just having some harmless fun, you're doing it wrong.
- juhanima 13y agoGermany won in 2010 and 1982. Finland 2006. Israel two times in a row, 1978 and 1979. Again in 1998. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eurovision_Song_Contest_winners http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eurovision_Song_Contest... Edit: Now I realize the parent was just being sarcastic. Anyway, it's good to set the record straight. Double edit: Come to think of it, that was a bit of like 'the most hated countries' list. Or maybe the most isolated. Good stuff!
- tragomaskhalos 13y agoI cannot watch the voting for longer than 5 minutes without bellowing in outrage at how blatantly political the whole thing is. They could save time by dispensing with the music entirely and just asking everyone who their favourite countries are.
- andyking 13y agoI don't think the voting blocks are political - they're cultural. A song that gets played on the radio in Britain is likely to get a lot of airplay in Ireland, and the Irish vote will go to the familiar British artist. If someone's on Europa Plus in Moscow every hour, chances are the stations in Ukraine and Latvia and so on will also play them. It's not down to "we really hate Britain, so let's all gang up and not vote for them," it's down to "we're familiar with the people who are celebrities in our own region of Europe." The Eurosceptic British media would like us to think the rest of Europe dislikes us, hence the "political voting," "let's just leave Eurovision" narrative that comes out in the press every May.
- TomGullen 13y ago16/1 on Azerbaijan to win on Betfred, couldn't resist a little punt :) Fingers crossed it comes through!
- leke 13y agoThe only time I bet on Eurovision was when Finland won it. I got 14-1 because I got an early bet on.
- binarymax 13y agoInteresting post, but what I don't understand is what data is being used here? You vaguely mention foreign relations and song quality somewhere in the middle, but you don't elaborate on any metrics or data source?
- arethuza 13y agoYou are trying to apply logic to an article about Eurovision? The whole thing is, intentionally, a logic free zone.
- untog 13y agoIt actually fits it's own internal logic quite closely. Countries vote overwhelmingly on political grounds, with actual song quality coming in a distance second.
- mewo2 13y agoThe data source is the voting records since 1998. It's run through a parametric Bayesian MCMC model. The input data and the code for last year's model, which is pretty similar, are on GitHub: https://github.com/mewo2/eurovision https://github.com/mewo2/eurovision
- rmc 13y agoEurovision is a summary of european geopolitics told through a limited form of communication called "voting". There's a bit of singing at the start, but that only slightly affects the voting bit.
- afreak 13y agoIt always helps to look at the Eurovision illustrated guide to know what is going on: http://i.imgur.com/MoTQRRZ.jpg http://i.imgur.com/MoTQRRZ.jpg My call: Ireland will place in the top-5.
- rmc 13y agoMy call: Ireland will place in the top-5. For the record, Ireland came last, 26 out of 26, with about 3 votes in total.
- leke 13y agoKoza Mostra & Agathon Iakovidis (Greece) -- Alcohol is Free is an awesome song. I hope it wins.