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In the unknowable category, it seems like the availability of self-driving cars will drastically change the cost-benefits ratio of driving and could easily lead

by bjterry 13y ago

In the unknowable category, it seems like the availability of self-driving cars will drastically change the cost-benefits ratio of driving and could easily lead to a dramatic increase. Are you really going to want to fly from San Francisco to Los Angeles, spending 2+ hours in transit time, when you could get in your personal car, browse the internet or read a newspaper for the 6 hours you'd spend driving? I strongly suspect that any theories that we will be driving less will go out the window in the next decade or two.

freehunter 13y ago
Proponents of self driving cars seem to be forgetting the story that electric cars are telling us right now. People (en masse) will choose the immediately cheaper and more entrenched option. Maybe an electric car will save you hundreds on your gas and maintenance bills. But it's also $5000 more upfront. So people are not buying electric cars, even with all the studies showing that a great number of people will not lose anything by being range-limited. Will self-driving cars cost as much as gasoline cars? As much as electric cars? Or will they cost more than both option? So pulling numbers out of my ass: who is going to be buying a $50,000 self driving car when they can get the electric option for $40,000 and the gas option for $35,000? We can't even get them to buy electric.
- bjterry 13y ago
  That is a true point for the first years that self-driving cars exist, but it is not true on the timescale of a couple decades. The first Tesla Roadster was delivered in July of 2009, and they are going to ship 20,000 cars this year (compare with 5 million light vehicle sales in the last 12 months, for the sake of honesty in statistics), in an environment where their car is at a significant disadvantage due to lack of infrastructure. The first self-driving car will be expensive, but eventually it won't be, and eventually it will have a huge impact on people's driving habits. Unless everyone stars telecommuting, which is a social change that will probably happen slower than technological changes, I don't see how miles driven per year would reasonably go down.

by bjterry 13y ago

freehunter 13y ago

Proponents of self driving cars seem to be forgetting the story that electric cars are telling us right now. People (en masse) will choose the immediately cheaper and more entrenched option. Maybe an electric car will save you hundreds on your gas and maintenance bills. But it's also $5000 more upfront. So people are not buying electric cars, even with all the studies showing that a great number of people will not lose anything by being range-limited. Will self-driving cars cost as much as gasoline cars? As much as electric cars? Or will they cost more than both option? So pulling numbers out of my ass: who is going to be buying a $50,000 self driving car when they can get the electric option for $40,000 and the gas option for $35,000? We can't even get them to buy electric.

bjterry 13y ago
That is a true point for the first years that self-driving cars exist, but it is not true on the timescale of a couple decades. The first Tesla Roadster was delivered in July of 2009, and they are going to ship 20,000 cars this year (compare with 5 million light vehicle sales in the last 12 months, for the sake of honesty in statistics), in an environment where their car is at a significant disadvantage due to lack of infrastructure. The first self-driving car will be expensive, but eventually it won't be, and eventually it will have a huge impact on people's driving habits. Unless everyone stars telecommuting, which is a social change that will probably happen slower than technological changes, I don't see how miles driven per year would reasonably go down.