4 ms·

Have we arrived in the post-Windows era?

18 points by jamesjyu 18y ago

SamAtt 18y ago
The only thing that makes me think we aren't entering the post-Windows era is that Office is still a cash cow for Microsoft. Because the situation Microsoft is in now with Windows greatly resembles the one they were in with Office '97. People kept buying new versions because no one else offered anything all that different and it was preloaded It comes down to the next great thing. Linux, OpenOffice, Google Apps and Zoho are all trying to be just like Microsoft in their look and feel. But the only thing that will draw people from Microsoft is the next evolution of the desktop. Microsoft clearly can't provide it. When I see that. Something that makes it worth the effort for people to ditch Windows I'll know we're in the post-Windows era.
andr 18y ago
Yes, Windows has been commoditized, but Microsoft is not really suffering from it. Even though most users don't care about the OS, they still need one. In most cases, they go with Windows. You can even say Microsoft won the battle by having everyone else compete on the web and leave Windows alone. Think about it - Microsoft gets $100+ in licensing fees from every PC user every 3-5 years. Add another $100 for that user's PC at work. How many web businesses can make the same statement?
gojomo 18y ago
With apologies to William Gibson: The post-Windows era is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet.
anigbrowl 18y ago
A foolish article - why the graphic about browser wars, when the real comparison is between Office Enterprise and things like Google Docs (who will surely be competing against Oracle + Sun now)? Yes, the OS is less relevant now as many users don't need more computing power than a netbook + SAS can provide, but it still matters. High-powered consoles won't kill PC games, I doubt I'll be editing HD video over the net any time soon (although I wouldn't object), and no large corporation or medium is going to outsource its operations to some third-party provider of cloud services. Just because something is commoditized doesn't make it irrelevant. Cars are functionally identical for 90% of drivers but people still have preferences there.
- stcredzero 18y ago
  What about editing HD video on a high-powered game console? I should think that there would be a huge market for that!
  - anigbrowl 18y ago
    That would be interesting, for sure. I like some of the design tools found in ps3 games - and yet again, I wonder why game consoles aren't made more expandable. I'm sure it would transcode video faster than my PC, though I've been disappointed at the scanty amount of code produced for Linux on PS3. I thought there'd be a much more robust hobby scene around it by now, but Sony's decision to wall off the GPU alienated a lot of people.
    - stcredzero 18y ago
      Sony could sell a ton of video editing software as a download. Maybe this is why they walled it off.
gamble 18y ago
The importance of upgrades has always been overblown by a tech media written by the kind of people who pay attention to new OS releases. For most people, the OS isn't a product separate from the computer. What's changed is the PC market reached saturation shortly after XP dropped in 2001. Older versions of Windows weren't upgraded voluntarily so much as swept along with the exponential growth of the overall market. If Microsoft didn't drop support and licensing of new copies to force upgrades, plenty of companies would be happy to stick with XP for years to come.
dflock 18y ago
Hopefully we are moving back into an era of increased competition in the OS market; that would be a good thing to see. personally I'm rooting for Plan9 :) Having you product commoditized isn't so bad, provided that you've got high volumes. Getting people to upgrade existing XP and Office installs is going to be Microsofts biggest challenge, in a saturated market where sagging hardware sales are no longer pushing new Windows licenses. Hence ever more aggressive Windows Genuine Advantage stuff, I guess. I don't know about you, but when people talk to me about upgrading their 'slow' old pc's now, I usually talk them into putting Linux on it. They are generally astounded at the speed improvement over their mushy old, virus addled, Windows install. No complaints from anyone yet.
jf 18y ago
Yes.

18 points by jamesjyu 18y ago

The only thing that makes me think we aren't entering the post-Windows era is that Office is still a cash cow for Microsoft. Because the situation Microsoft is in now with Windows greatly resembles the one they were in with Office '97. People kept buying new versions because no one else offered anything all that different and it was preloaded It comes down to the next great thing. Linux, OpenOffice, Google Apps and Zoho are all trying to be just like Microsoft in their look and feel. But the only thing that will draw people from Microsoft is the next evolution of the desktop. Microsoft clearly can't provide it. When I see that. Something that makes it worth the effort for people to ditch Windows I'll know we're in the post-Windows era.

andr 18y ago

Yes, Windows has been commoditized, but Microsoft is not really suffering from it. Even though most users don't care about the OS, they still need one. In most cases, they go with Windows. You can even say Microsoft won the battle by having everyone else compete on the web and leave Windows alone. Think about it - Microsoft gets $100+ in licensing fees from every PC user every 3-5 years. Add another $100 for that user's PC at work. How many web businesses can make the same statement?

gojomo 18y ago

With apologies to William Gibson: The post-Windows era is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet.

anigbrowl 18y ago

A foolish article - why the graphic about browser wars, when the real comparison is between Office Enterprise and things like Google Docs (who will surely be competing against Oracle + Sun now)? Yes, the OS is less relevant now as many users don't need more computing power than a netbook + SAS can provide, but it still matters. High-powered consoles won't kill PC games, I doubt I'll be editing HD video over the net any time soon (although I wouldn't object), and no large corporation or medium is going to outsource its operations to some third-party provider of cloud services. Just because something is commoditized doesn't make it irrelevant. Cars are functionally identical for 90% of drivers but people still have preferences there.

stcredzero 18y ago
What about editing HD video on a high-powered game console? I should think that there would be a huge market for that!
- anigbrowl 18y ago
  That would be interesting, for sure. I like some of the design tools found in ps3 games - and yet again, I wonder why game consoles aren't made more expandable. I'm sure it would transcode video faster than my PC, though I've been disappointed at the scanty amount of code produced for Linux on PS3. I thought there'd be a much more robust hobby scene around it by now, but Sony's decision to wall off the GPU alienated a lot of people.
  - stcredzero 18y ago
    Sony could sell a ton of video editing software as a download. Maybe this is why they walled it off.

gamble 18y ago

The importance of upgrades has always been overblown by a tech media written by the kind of people who pay attention to new OS releases. For most people, the OS isn't a product separate from the computer. What's changed is the PC market reached saturation shortly after XP dropped in 2001. Older versions of Windows weren't upgraded voluntarily so much as swept along with the exponential growth of the overall market. If Microsoft didn't drop support and licensing of new copies to force upgrades, plenty of companies would be happy to stick with XP for years to come.

dflock 18y ago

Hopefully we are moving back into an era of increased competition in the OS market; that would be a good thing to see. personally I'm rooting for Plan9 :) Having you product commoditized isn't so bad, provided that you've got high volumes. Getting people to upgrade existing XP and Office installs is going to be Microsofts biggest challenge, in a saturated market where sagging hardware sales are no longer pushing new Windows licenses. Hence ever more aggressive Windows Genuine Advantage stuff, I guess. I don't know about you, but when people talk to me about upgrading their 'slow' old pc's now, I usually talk them into putting Linux on it. They are generally astounded at the speed improvement over their mushy old, virus addled, Windows install. No complaints from anyone yet.

jf 18y ago

Yes.