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So the outcome looks something like this: 1. holders of dollars at MtGox will buy as many btc as possible and remove them from MtGox, because there's no other

So the outcome looks something like this: 1. holders of dollars at MtGox will buy as many btc as possible and remove them from MtGox, because there's no other escape for their dollars 2. holders of btc at MtGox will presumably send them elsewhere because selling them for dollars doesn't make sense if you can't get the dollars (although perhaps it still makes sense for euros/pounds/yen etc) 3. There is a loss of liquidity at Gox from all the btc being pulled from there 4. The dollar price at other exchanges starts falling because they are still exit points for dollars Most of the trading volume is in dollars at Gox if I'm not mistaken, so this might be the death blow for them. Although given their history of incompetence, it was kind of sad the network effect was protecting them. Perhaps a phoenix will rise from the ashes.

chadzawistowski 13y ago
Interesting analysis. I've heard a lot of pontificating about how MtGox's utter dominance of USD-BTX exchange was bad for the Bitcoin ecosystem as a whole; I'd like to see how the Bitcoin community reacts to this change over the next coming months.
3pt14159 13y ago
Here is the actual outcome: 1. Holders of dollars at MtGox that live outside the US and have already had successful withdraws to their home-country banks withdraw now. (Source: I just did) 2. Then we sell a large portion of our bitcoins (essentially just leaving the, "if I'm wrong" fund of bitcoins, about 20% of what we bought way back when it was $1 or $5 or whatever). 3. Then we withdraw that amount to our home country bank. 4. Then we wait for the next 2 months as speculation of DHS swings the price down then up then down until DHS stikes against MtGox and the price collapses to about $20 or $30. 5. Then we figure out a way to buy back in. 6. We wait 2 years and start selling out at $1000 / BTC while people scream "currency of the future".

chadzawistowski 13y ago

Interesting analysis. I've heard a lot of pontificating about how MtGox's utter dominance of USD-BTX exchange was bad for the Bitcoin ecosystem as a whole; I'd like to see how the Bitcoin community reacts to this change over the next coming months.

3pt14159 13y ago

Here is the actual outcome: 1. Holders of dollars at MtGox that live outside the US and have already had successful withdraws to their home-country banks withdraw now. (Source: I just did) 2. Then we sell a large portion of our bitcoins (essentially just leaving the, "if I'm wrong" fund of bitcoins, about 20% of what we bought way back when it was $1 or $5 or whatever). 3. Then we withdraw that amount to our home country bank. 4. Then we wait for the next 2 months as speculation of DHS swings the price down then up then down until DHS stikes against MtGox and the price collapses to about $20 or $30. 5. Then we figure out a way to buy back in. 6. We wait 2 years and start selling out at $1000 / BTC while people scream "currency of the future".