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Robot cars. Car accidents cost over a million lives worldwide every year - 45,000 in the USA - and injure about 40 times that number. They are the leading caus

Robot cars. Car accidents cost over a million lives worldwide every year - 45,000 in the USA - and injure about 40 times that number. They are the leading cause of death for people aged 18-34. In the USA, the total cost of accidents is about $230 billion (1.7% of American GDP according to my calculations). Robot cars will reduce car accidents, probably by a lot (human errors make up 93% of the causes of car accidents; 80% of accidents are due to human inattention). They'll make parking vastly more efficient (the car can drop you off and go and park in some optimal place). 50 billion person-hours are spent driving every year. In productive hours, that's worth a trillion dollars. Even if the hours aren't productive (watching TV or whatever), it's still worth a lot. Congestion would be reduced because robot cars don't need the follow space between cars that human reflexes require. It's like quadrupling the capacity of existing roads for free. Since the crash rate might be so low, cars might be ultralight rather than made of armor, so they'll use less energy and less metal. I first became excited about robot cars from reading this essay: http://ideas.4brad.com/robocars-are-future http://ideas.4brad.com/robocars-are-future

endtime 18y ago
Well, in some ways we already have robot cars. Audi and VW and others already have a lot of driver assistance features like blind spot checking, rear camera, etc. Some cars even steer autonomously to assist with parallel parking. However, if you're hoping to see fully autonomous driving in consumer casr you're going to be waiting a while. There are a lot of regulatory and comfort/psychological issues with such systems. Disclaimer: I spent last quarter working on a driver assistance system on Junior for changing lanes on the highway.
- elidourado 18y ago
  What is your prediction for how long we will have to wait for autonomous driving?
  - endtime 18y ago
    The technology could be there within 10 years easily if people were working on it (which, AFAIK, no one is for consumers), but because of the psychological issues involved I'm not sure people will be investing the time. But if you look at the DARPA Urban Challenge you'll see that many (not all) technical hurdles have already been overcome.
jodrellblank 18y ago
Not even slightly excited about robot cars. Driving is fun, for a start! human errors make up 93% of the causes of car accidents What kind of human errors? Running out into the road in front of cars? Driving while too tired? Arguments with passengers? Not looking when changing lanes? Too busy looking for road signs to see a stopped car ahead? Driving horribly to try and go back for a missed turn? Technology could help with a lot of these problems without replacing cars altogether. Current Volvos can have a blind-spot warning system, they can ready the brakes for you as you get close to a car in front so they will react quicker, they can silence incoming phone calls when the car detects too much activity (e.g. sharp cornering) so it wont distract you. I look forward to the day when all road signs are gone and replaced with informational broadcasts that my car will interpret, and on the dashboard I get a neat summary of the current speed limit, the GPS navigation route to where I'm going, and that's about it. You also aren't clear which figures you mention are worldwide and which are USA only. Worldwide, there are countries which don't require regular car maintenance, and people drive around with tree branches instead of steering wheels, for instance. Is that kind of thing 'human error'?
- bmelton 18y ago
  Driving is fun, to be sure, but there are enough of us that would love to be done with it. I currently commute an hour and a half each way in DC traffic. I LOVE driving, but due to other people, all the fun is taken out of getting to work. If I could hit a button and just 'get there' via auto-pilot while I finished work, that would be ideal (for me). I could turn off auto-pilot, but then there wouldn't be any point. I think that the magic in getting auto-pilot to work in cars is in enforcing that enough other cars on the road are using it too. I truly believe that so long as there are any cars on the same road as you not on auto-pilot, that it will negate most of the benefits for everybody. Regarding human error, I think that most of what you listed would count. The car is a human operated machine, which means that most of the time, wrecks are our fault. Unless the wheel falls off unexpectedly, or the brakes fail, you could pretty much always attribute a failure to the operator -- or the operator of the other car where applicable. I would also not like to be rid of driving as a pastime, but until you do, I'm also not sure that there's any point in automating the driving experience. So while I am sympathetic to your point, the pain of my daily commute is sympathetic to the other.

endtime 18y ago

Well, in some ways we already have robot cars. Audi and VW and others already have a lot of driver assistance features like blind spot checking, rear camera, etc. Some cars even steer autonomously to assist with parallel parking. However, if you're hoping to see fully autonomous driving in consumer casr you're going to be waiting a while. There are a lot of regulatory and comfort/psychological issues with such systems. Disclaimer: I spent last quarter working on a driver assistance system on Junior for changing lanes on the highway.

elidourado 18y ago
What is your prediction for how long we will have to wait for autonomous driving?
- endtime 18y ago
  The technology could be there within 10 years easily if people were working on it (which, AFAIK, no one is for consumers), but because of the psychological issues involved I'm not sure people will be investing the time. But if you look at the DARPA Urban Challenge you'll see that many (not all) technical hurdles have already been overcome.

jodrellblank 18y ago

Not even slightly excited about robot cars. Driving is fun, for a start! human errors make up 93% of the causes of car accidents What kind of human errors? Running out into the road in front of cars? Driving while too tired? Arguments with passengers? Not looking when changing lanes? Too busy looking for road signs to see a stopped car ahead? Driving horribly to try and go back for a missed turn? Technology could help with a lot of these problems without replacing cars altogether. Current Volvos can have a blind-spot warning system, they can ready the brakes for you as you get close to a car in front so they will react quicker, they can silence incoming phone calls when the car detects too much activity (e.g. sharp cornering) so it wont distract you. I look forward to the day when all road signs are gone and replaced with informational broadcasts that my car will interpret, and on the dashboard I get a neat summary of the current speed limit, the GPS navigation route to where I'm going, and that's about it. You also aren't clear which figures you mention are worldwide and which are USA only. Worldwide, there are countries which don't require regular car maintenance, and people drive around with tree branches instead of steering wheels, for instance. Is that kind of thing 'human error'?

bmelton 18y ago
Driving is fun, to be sure, but there are enough of us that would love to be done with it. I currently commute an hour and a half each way in DC traffic. I LOVE driving, but due to other people, all the fun is taken out of getting to work. If I could hit a button and just 'get there' via auto-pilot while I finished work, that would be ideal (for me). I could turn off auto-pilot, but then there wouldn't be any point. I think that the magic in getting auto-pilot to work in cars is in enforcing that enough other cars on the road are using it too. I truly believe that so long as there are any cars on the same road as you not on auto-pilot, that it will negate most of the benefits for everybody. Regarding human error, I think that most of what you listed would count. The car is a human operated machine, which means that most of the time, wrecks are our fault. Unless the wheel falls off unexpectedly, or the brakes fail, you could pretty much always attribute a failure to the operator -- or the operator of the other car where applicable. I would also not like to be rid of driving as a pastime, but until you do, I'm also not sure that there's any point in automating the driving experience. So while I am sympathetic to your point, the pain of my daily commute is sympathetic to the other.