4 ms·

Like I said 3 months ago (when the stock was at $34): I'm betting on Elon! http://go.DanielOdio.com/elon http://go.DanielOdio.com/elon

gfodor 13y ago
"Betting" is the operative word here. I think Elon is going to be successful, but that doesn't mean I want to gamble on TSLA stock. In other words, TSLA is not an "investment" if you realize you are essentially betting on some future outcome that is far from certain. It's a gamble. It would be great if people made this distinction (not saying you don't)
- danielodio 13y ago
  Yeah agreed; in my blog post & comments I talk about how the stock could definitely go to $0 if the company missteps. But then again, after driving a Model S, I believe it's the best car out there, so as long as the company executes well I'm very bullish on the stock, especial in the medium to long term ( >1 year).
  - Luc 13y ago
    Tesla's market cap is currently one and a half times Fiat's. I know it's a rough measure, but that seems a bit excessive.
    - ryguytilidie 13y ago
      Stock prices are generally based on the expected future profitability of a company. Tesla's expectations are vastly higher than Fiat...
  - jnw2 13y ago
    On the other hand, the stock of every legacy automaker could go to $0 if Tesla is successful and the legacy automakers fail to transition to building electric cars (or even just fail to shed the obnoxious dealerships). And the stock of every electric power distribution monopoly could go to $0 if solar panels and batteries get cheap enough that we don't need the grid anymore.
- corin_ 13y ago
  All investments are gambling to at least some extent.
  - gfodor 13y ago
    So is crossing the street. But you don't call this gambling. Many investments are purchasing the rights to future fairly predictable cash flows. Labeling these as gambles dilutes the meaning of the word.
toomuchtodo 13y ago
I bought several thousand shares at $17. Watching it go to almost $80/share has been surreal.
- john_w_t_b 13y ago
  Congrats on a nice gain. You could buy a Model S with your profits. I bought a Chevy Volt last year. Have really enjoyed driving it so far. Electric cars have really taken off in the past year in Silicon Valley. I see multiple Tesla's, Leafs and Volts every time I take a drive now.
jcnnghm 13y ago
While it was a good buy then, it's important to keep in mind that it's either in the middle of, or toward the tail end of a short squeeze, so is likely trading above the present fundamental value of the company. I expect it will fall quite a bit in the short term, though it's probably a good long term buy still. There were so many short positions in part because the market cap is way off for Tesla as a car company; the value of Tesla is currently about 85% of the value of Mazda, but Mazda sells many more cars much more profitably. Of course, the majority of the price is all in the expected present value of the future cash flows.

gfodor 13y ago

"Betting" is the operative word here. I think Elon is going to be successful, but that doesn't mean I want to gamble on TSLA stock. In other words, TSLA is not an "investment" if you realize you are essentially betting on some future outcome that is far from certain. It's a gamble. It would be great if people made this distinction (not saying you don't)

danielodio 13y ago
Yeah agreed; in my blog post & comments I talk about how the stock could definitely go to $0 if the company missteps. But then again, after driving a Model S, I believe it's the best car out there, so as long as the company executes well I'm very bullish on the stock, especial in the medium to long term ( >1 year).
- Luc 13y ago
  Tesla's market cap is currently one and a half times Fiat's. I know it's a rough measure, but that seems a bit excessive.
  - ryguytilidie 13y ago
    Stock prices are generally based on the expected future profitability of a company. Tesla's expectations are vastly higher than Fiat...
- jnw2 13y ago
  On the other hand, the stock of every legacy automaker could go to $0 if Tesla is successful and the legacy automakers fail to transition to building electric cars (or even just fail to shed the obnoxious dealerships). And the stock of every electric power distribution monopoly could go to $0 if solar panels and batteries get cheap enough that we don't need the grid anymore.
corin_ 13y ago
All investments are gambling to at least some extent.
- gfodor 13y ago
  So is crossing the street. But you don't call this gambling. Many investments are purchasing the rights to future fairly predictable cash flows. Labeling these as gambles dilutes the meaning of the word.

toomuchtodo 13y ago

I bought several thousand shares at $17. Watching it go to almost $80/share has been surreal.

john_w_t_b 13y ago
Congrats on a nice gain. You could buy a Model S with your profits. I bought a Chevy Volt last year. Have really enjoyed driving it so far. Electric cars have really taken off in the past year in Silicon Valley. I see multiple Tesla's, Leafs and Volts every time I take a drive now.

jcnnghm 13y ago

While it was a good buy then, it's important to keep in mind that it's either in the middle of, or toward the tail end of a short squeeze, so is likely trading above the present fundamental value of the company. I expect it will fall quite a bit in the short term, though it's probably a good long term buy still. There were so many short positions in part because the market cap is way off for Tesla as a car company; the value of Tesla is currently about 85% of the value of Mazda, but Mazda sells many more cars much more profitably. Of course, the majority of the price is all in the expected present value of the future cash flows.