5 ms·
Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.
by madsushi 13y ago
Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.
- tel 13y agoWell, if it's the case that there's a 1/6000 chance that the first guy gets hit, it's 5999/6000 chance that the third guy gets it. (Not true, but it's gesturally correct). So I imagine the odds are much less skewed or NOBODY forgets the spin between rounds. Also, if you don't spin between rounds and you're the 6th person to try it... this isn't really a game of risk anymore.
- skue 13y agoWhy is the parent down voted? He was responding to the hypothetical case that the odds are initially 1/600 due to bullet weight and no one else spins. Granted, he wrote 1/6000 instead of 1/600, but his basic point is correct: if no one else spins, the odds for each of the other 5 players would not remain ~1/6.
- tel 13y agoThanks for the nudge! I did misread the hypothetical distribution the parent claimed. I definitely wrote that response in a hurry as a thought experiment to flesh out what the least bizarre rules for R.R. might be, but I was surprised by the vehement negative response.
- kyrias 13y agoHeh, you really have no idea of what you're talking about, do you? (Or are just plain stupid)
- gyepi 13y agoOne, the other, or both might by true. However, in polite company there is rarely a need to ask the former and definitely not the latter. Putting other people down, even or especially when they are wrong says more about you than them. Please don't.
- qu4z-2 13y agoI think he understands better than you, quite frankly.
- gambiting 13y agoYour odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails.
- jergason 13y agoThat is true with coin flips because the probability of a next coin toss coming up heads or tails is independent[0] of any previous coin tosses. Assuming you aren't spinning between turns, the probabilities are not independent anymore. 0: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theor...
- emidln 13y agoThat's not how maths work. You're describing something that works for non-dependent events. Flipping a coin 50 times previously has no bearing on how it will flip the 51st time. The events are said to be independent. In a six round revolver loaded with a single bullet and then randomized, pulling the trigger advances the next round. The first pull has a 1/6 (or 1/600, whatever) chance of firing. You will fire (assuming no mechanical malfunction and no randomization of the round after each pull) in those first 6 shots with a probability of 1.