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I once read that the chance of Russian Roulette is NOT 1:6 but more like 1:600, since you play with one bullet and the weight of the bullet makes it relatively
by WA 14y ago
I once read that the chance of Russian Roulette is NOT 1:6 but more like 1:600, since you play with one bullet and the weight of the bullet makes it relatively unlikely that the bullet stops next to the top position in the barrel when you spin it.
Don't know if this is true but in the end, it doesn't matter for this stupid game.
- madsushi 14y agoDepends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.
- tel 14y agoWell, if it's the case that there's a 1/6000 chance that the first guy gets hit, it's 5999/6000 chance that the third guy gets it. (Not true, but it's gesturally correct). So I imagine the odds are much less skewed or NOBODY forgets the spin between rounds. Also, if you don't spin between rounds and you're the 6th person to try it... this isn't really a game of risk anymore.
- skue 14y agoWhy is the parent down voted? He was responding to the hypothetical case that the odds are initially 1/600 due to bullet weight and no one else spins. Granted, he wrote 1/6000 instead of 1/600, but his basic point is correct: if no one else spins, the odds for each of the other 5 players would not remain ~1/6.
- tel 13y agoThanks for the nudge! I did misread the hypothetical distribution the parent claimed. I definitely wrote that response in a hurry as a thought experiment to flesh out what the least bizarre rules for R.R. might be, but I was surprised by the vehement negative response.
- kyrias 14y agoHeh, you really have no idea of what you're talking about, do you? (Or are just plain stupid)
- gyepi 14y agoOne, the other, or both might by true. However, in polite company there is rarely a need to ask the former and definitely not the latter. Putting other people down, even or especially when they are wrong says more about you than them. Please don't.
- qu4z-2 13y agoI think he understands better than you, quite frankly.
- gambiting 14y agoYour odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails.
- jergason 14y agoThat is true with coin flips because the probability of a next coin toss coming up heads or tails is independent[0] of any previous coin tosses. Assuming you aren't spinning between turns, the probabilities are not independent anymore. 0: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theor...
- emidln 14y agoThat's not how maths work. You're describing something that works for non-dependent events. Flipping a coin 50 times previously has no bearing on how it will flip the 51st time. The events are said to be independent. In a six round revolver loaded with a single bullet and then randomized, pulling the trigger advances the next round. The first pull has a 1/6 (or 1/600, whatever) chance of firing. You will fire (assuming no mechanical malfunction and no randomization of the round after each pull) in those first 6 shots with a probability of 1.
- shurcooL 14y agoI thought it was a theoretical game that no one actually plays.
- k-mcgrady 14y agoDefinitely not just theoretical. List of 'notable incidents' including deaths on Wikipedia[1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette#Notable_incidents http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette#Notable_incide...
- forTheRecord 14y agoLast year alone four people died in the US while playing the game. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/05/dion-von-mays-dies-russian-roulette_n_1859221.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/05/dion-von-mays-dies-...
- guiomie 14y agoIncredible.
- lpolovets 14y agoCombining this with the 1 in 600 statistic of the grandparent comment, it seems like ~2000-3000 people played Russian Roulette last year. To me, that's even more astounding than the number of deaths -- although the number of deaths is certainly more tragic.
- cgag 14y agoThat's a pretty big leap of faith assumption though. Does anyone have a source or a revolver?
- damoncali 14y agoI have spun a revolver with one round in the cylinder. First, you wont wait for it to settle, so it doesn't matter. Second, a cylinder is pretty heavy, so even if you did, it's not that big an effect. Third, there is significant friction between the cylinder and the pin it rotates on, which will prevent it from settling in that manner. The 1:600 number isn't true.
- x0054 14y agoThe way I though you spin it is with the gun facing up. The would negate the gravity effect. And yes, people "play" it, stupid drunk people.
- kevinpet 14y agoWith the gun facing up is probably the most reasonable way to play. The round would have a good chance of falling out.
- damoncali 14y agoI can safely say that is not true. The weight of a bullet is pretty small compared to the weight of a cylinder. Try it (not the shooting part). It's not a big effect.
- glomph 14y agoPeople often (well in films at least) spin the barrel out of the gun and then snap it shut at a random time while it is still spinning. That would take your chances back up to 1/6.
- rdl 14y agoSpinning the cylinder is also bad for the revolver's timing and cylinder stop/cylinder flutes. So, the odds of pissing off the gun's owner are near 100%, even if you don't end up dead.
- Kequc 14y agoI lubs mah guns.
- platz 14y agoIt's terrible but the phrase "life is cheap in Russia" comes to mind, which I think I heard when these videos of Russian kids showing off on tall structures started emerging. Of course kids in most all countries enjoy such thrills.
- ta25252 14y agoNo. You snap the cylinder shut while it is spinning.
- skue 14y agoSomeone reportedly did an informal experiment. One gun, 200 spins. Results: Position Times 1 (barrel) 20 (0.100) 2 25 (0.125) 3 35 (0.175) 4 (bottom) 38 (0.190) 5 41 (0.205) 6 (death) 41 (0.205) Source: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11585888&postcount=42 http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11585888&...
- Alex3917 14y agoI love how people have so much trouble understanding the Monty Hall 'paradox', but when you give them basically the exact same problem in the form of Russian roulette then suddenly it becomes trivially intuitive that you REALLY want to spin in between turns.
- GFischer 13y agoIt's hard to understand even after reading about it :) . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem And I did take probability classes (and passed :) ).
- cynwoody 13y agoI had the same reaction to the link. But, since I've been checking out the Go language, I decided to whip up a little simulation[1] to prove the claimed probability. And indeed, it is true: choosing the moderator's offer wins 2/3 of the time. [1] http://play.golang.org/p/7ua2ZCSuVD http://play.golang.org/p/7ua2ZCSuVD
- Alex3917 13y agoThe trick is to imagine the same scenario but with a billion doors. You choose a door, and then the moderator closes every single door except for yours and one other door. Then it's much easier to see why it's better to go with the other door.
- altrego99 13y agoHow do you map Monty Hall to Russian Roulette? I choose a slot, you choose an _empty_ slot - should I spin or not? Or I choose a slot, you choose the bullet... no that doesn't make sense either.
- tomjen3 13y agoYou spin, fire, no bullet. I now have 1/5 of a chance that there is a bullet in the next chamber, if I spin I have 1/6th. The odds gets more and more favourable towards spinning, the more people fire the gun.