3 ms·

I agree that they are a bit overhyped. The exclusion to that is places that do not have access to antibiotics. Even though the 1918 Flu had cytokine-storm-like

I agree that they are a bit overhyped. The exclusion to that is places that do not have access to antibiotics. Even though the 1918 Flu had cytokine-storm-like effects, a large majority of people died of secondary infection, preventable with antibiotics. There is also a relatively small window of time going forward before we have decent universal vaccines. That said, a lot of the work done to get us to where we are is a big part of why they are not as scary as the hype.

hga 13y ago
Are you sure about magnitude of the secondary infection role in the 1918 flu (which I'll note doesn't match the previous pandemic's death toll of "only" about a million)? It sounds plausible, except I distinctly remember reading about common mortality paths in the "young" population that were just too fast. Heck, I just read that the first useful genetic sample came from Brevig Mission, Alaska, where "it killed 72 out of 80 residents in a 5 day period." Pneumonic plague is that fast, I Am Not A Doctor but I'm unaware of any bacteria that's similarly fast and lethal. I'm not sure we can predict when we'll have universal vaccines, as I understand it we've only recently gotten some serious traction on them ... we hope. But it is possible we'll get them fairly soon.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- Lost_BiomedE 13y ago
  Yeah. I just finished a 50 page research paper on it, so it is pretty fresh in my mind. I was surprised to find that it wasn't a greater killer. Yes, it is fast and lethal, but it did not account for most of the deaths. The pipeline on flu vaccines look very promising, and IMO, we will have an effective universal vaccine within ten years. The next generation of vaccines can be made by bacteria or other methods that do not require 1 egg for 1 vaccine. This makes them cheaper, much faster to produce, and easier to distribute. One test that amazed me was Inovio used a unmatched vaccine on the 1918 Flu with lethal dose in mice. All the controls died but none of the vaccinated.
  - hga 13y ago
    I'm not completely clear about what you're saying, is It, "it is believed that a majority of the deaths from the 1918 flu were ultimately due to secondary bacterial infections (generally treatable today by antibiotics)"? And "cytokine-storms can be very fast and lethal (I've read of cases of apparently well individuals dying in their sleep, presumably from that), but they did not account for most of the deaths"? If so, was this true for the "healthy younger adult" cohort that were disproportionately killed in 1918? (I.e. not the typical young children, elderly and compromised patients who are the normal majority of flu victims.) Hmmm, in that case we have to wonder why the previous pandemic wasn't so lethal. But from everything I've read, "If you learned one flu pandemic, you've learned one flu pandemic", to quote one expert. And it's frightening how little we really know, like we don't really know why it tends to break out in winter.... BTW, I've read you can generally get 3 doses of antigen per egg (note to others, what we think of the egg is one cell, it's the multicell egg membrane in which the viri grow). Although, with three different antigens per dose of vaccine, that gets you back to 3 eggs produce 3 doses. Except they're talking about doing two strains of type B: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine#2013-2014_Northern_Hemisphere_influenza_season http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine#2013-2014_Nor....
    - Lost_BiomedE 13y ago
      Before 1918, a lot of the flu pandemics were of equine origin, now thought to be extinct. The 1918 was avian and people did not have any prior immunity. All pandemics since have been a mutant of the 1918. A universal vaccine will be great since we don't know when something like bat flu will become a problem. Compared to the exponential growth of say ecoli bacteria, any of the current egg solutions are vastly inferior for production speed and expense. This is especially important for poorer countries, aid, and health initiatives. The secondary infection I am talking about was due to common respiratory flora. See: http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2008/niaid-19.htm http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2008/niaid-19.htm or from wiki: "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred."[30] The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung.

hga 13y ago

Are you sure about magnitude of the secondary infection role in the 1918 flu (which I'll note doesn't match the previous pandemic's death toll of "only" about a million)? It sounds plausible, except I distinctly remember reading about common mortality paths in the "young" population that were just too fast. Heck, I just read that the first useful genetic sample came from Brevig Mission, Alaska, where "it killed 72 out of 80 residents in a 5 day period." Pneumonic plague is that fast, I Am Not A Doctor but I'm unaware of any bacteria that's similarly fast and lethal. I'm not sure we can predict when we'll have universal vaccines, as I understand it we've only recently gotten some serious traction on them ... we hope. But it is possible we'll get them fairly soon.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
Lost_BiomedE 13y ago
Yeah. I just finished a 50 page research paper on it, so it is pretty fresh in my mind. I was surprised to find that it wasn't a greater killer. Yes, it is fast and lethal, but it did not account for most of the deaths. The pipeline on flu vaccines look very promising, and IMO, we will have an effective universal vaccine within ten years. The next generation of vaccines can be made by bacteria or other methods that do not require 1 egg for 1 vaccine. This makes them cheaper, much faster to produce, and easier to distribute. One test that amazed me was Inovio used a unmatched vaccine on the 1918 Flu with lethal dose in mice. All the controls died but none of the vaccinated.
- hga 13y ago
  I'm not completely clear about what you're saying, is It, "it is believed that a majority of the deaths from the 1918 flu were ultimately due to secondary bacterial infections (generally treatable today by antibiotics)"? And "cytokine-storms can be very fast and lethal (I've read of cases of apparently well individuals dying in their sleep, presumably from that), but they did not account for most of the deaths"? If so, was this true for the "healthy younger adult" cohort that were disproportionately killed in 1918? (I.e. not the typical young children, elderly and compromised patients who are the normal majority of flu victims.) Hmmm, in that case we have to wonder why the previous pandemic wasn't so lethal. But from everything I've read, "If you learned one flu pandemic, you've learned one flu pandemic", to quote one expert. And it's frightening how little we really know, like we don't really know why it tends to break out in winter.... BTW, I've read you can generally get 3 doses of antigen per egg (note to others, what we think of the egg is one cell, it's the multicell egg membrane in which the viri grow). Although, with three different antigens per dose of vaccine, that gets you back to 3 eggs produce 3 doses. Except they're talking about doing two strains of type B: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine#2013-2014_Northern_Hemisphere_influenza_season http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine#2013-2014_Nor....
  - Lost_BiomedE 13y ago
    Before 1918, a lot of the flu pandemics were of equine origin, now thought to be extinct. The 1918 was avian and people did not have any prior immunity. All pandemics since have been a mutant of the 1918. A universal vaccine will be great since we don't know when something like bat flu will become a problem. Compared to the exponential growth of say ecoli bacteria, any of the current egg solutions are vastly inferior for production speed and expense. This is especially important for poorer countries, aid, and health initiatives. The secondary infection I am talking about was due to common respiratory flora. See: http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2008/niaid-19.htm http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2008/niaid-19.htm or from wiki: "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred."[30] The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung.