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Maybe I have been extremely lucky my whole life, but I have never thought of a startup as being risky. Financial risk is all about investing your personal huma
by charlesju 18y ago
Maybe I have been extremely lucky my whole life, but I have never thought of a startup as being risky.
Financial risk is all about investing your personal human capital and looking for the highest expected value.
When I approached the end of college, I looked at what I was given (mediocre programming skills, some street smarts, a knack for bs) and I realized that my expected financial return was much higher in a startup.
Take 5 years out for example.
Assumptions:
- 10% at 20 M = 2 M
- 10% at 10 M = 1 M
- 10% at 5 M = 500k
- 10% at 500,000 = 50,000
- 60% at nothing = $0
- Total of 3.55 M expected return on my personal human capital
- 100% at 500k (salary over 5 years, being generous)
- Total of 500k expected return
3.55 M > 500k. Of course these numbers are personal, and everyone is different, but I don't think they are unrealistic.
- dbul 18y agoCould you clarify how you arrived at the numbers for the five year expected return?
- charlesju 18y agoJust come up with expected exits if you were to start a startup then come up with percentages as to which you think those exits are reasonable. The numbers I came up with were largely based on my personal feeling of how good I am at this whole being a business-man business, this is different for everyone.