3 ms·

I don't think an econ PhD is inherently the right thing nor the wrong thing for people. But this post is just a mix of weak arguments and factual incorrect ass

by dbecker 13y ago

I don't think an econ PhD is inherently the right thing nor the wrong thing for people. But this post is just a mix of weak arguments and factual incorrect assertions. Regarding point 1, one reason most econ PhD's get jobs is that many advisors won't sign off on someone until they have a job (because it looks bad for the advisor). This results in students sticking around for years when they would be better served by having graduated. Reason 3: "Do it for intellectual fulfillment." If you want intellectual fulfillment, study something you personally enjoy. Maybe that's econ, maybe it isn't. A blogger you've never met is in no position to advise you about this. Reason 4: Low risk of failure It's true that you get the consolation masters if you fail out of an econ PhD. That's worth something. On the other hand, it's a field with an extremely high failure rate. Where I did my PhD, many people invested 4+ years before determining they'd never get their PhD. The completion rate was about 30%. If anything, the risk of failure is exceptionally high. Not to agree or disagree with the conclusion. Just surprised to see the use of such flimsy arguments.

washedup 13y ago
It is inherently wrong in the sense that the models can either misdirect policymakers into doing things that are not helpful for economic growth or that are easy to manipulate, creating false proofs. If one desires to do so, they should study economics. It could be good, because they may discover what things are wrong with the discipline and how they might be changed.
- dbecker 13y ago
  There's a well known saying by statistician George Box that "All models are wrong, but some of them are useful." Economic models are like maps, physical models, and every other type of models in that they are gross simplifications of reality. Like every other type of model, those simplifications can be cause a decision maker to reach false conclusions. When that occurs, we should try to figure out how to improve the models so they are more useful. The fact that economic models aren't perfect isn't news to the economics profession, but it isn't a realistic expectation either.
  - washedup 13y ago
    But they aren't useful because they are very bad at predicting. There are other tools that are more suited to model the complex and emergent properties of individual actions leading a market place and what its conditions may be.

by dbecker 13y ago

washedup 13y ago

It is inherently wrong in the sense that the models can either misdirect policymakers into doing things that are not helpful for economic growth or that are easy to manipulate, creating false proofs. If one desires to do so, they should study economics. It could be good, because they may discover what things are wrong with the discipline and how they might be changed.

dbecker 13y ago
There's a well known saying by statistician George Box that "All models are wrong, but some of them are useful." Economic models are like maps, physical models, and every other type of models in that they are gross simplifications of reality. Like every other type of model, those simplifications can be cause a decision maker to reach false conclusions. When that occurs, we should try to figure out how to improve the models so they are more useful. The fact that economic models aren't perfect isn't news to the economics profession, but it isn't a realistic expectation either.
- washedup 13y ago
  But they aren't useful because they are very bad at predicting. There are other tools that are more suited to model the complex and emergent properties of individual actions leading a market place and what its conditions may be.