You seem to have substituted your own guesstimates over examples in the article. You claim that "the odds of a company that's looking at a $100M offer failing

You seem to have substituted your own guesstimates over examples in the article. You claim that "the odds of a company that's looking at a $100M offer failing are probably more like 10% for real "failure"" yet the article cites four examples, of which two out of four (50%) peaked at $100M and are now in rough shape. The fates of the other two are still indeterminate. Admittedly, this is anecdotal, and possibly cherry picked, but at least it's a modicum of evidence. Can you provide alternative data to back up your claim?