3 ms·

It's not nearly that simple. The question is not just are we innovating here and there, but are we gaining productivity (and therefore building wealth)? Marc

It's not nearly that simple. The question is not just are we innovating here and there, but are we gaining productivity (and therefore building wealth)? Marc mentions GNP growth but that's a horrible number to gauge on. Peter brings up mean household income and working hours, which are much better indicators -- and they indicate we're going nowhere. You say Twitter is "fundamentally transformative". But I don't see the wealth Twitter has created. And if Twitter was gone tomorrow, would anyone really notice?

ippisl 14y ago
I bet that if you looked at household income and working hours and worker conditions at the beginning of the industrial revolution you wouldn't see great improvement. You've seen that only after the workers movement gotten worker rights. That's to say that those metrics are wrong to measure technological advancement per se. But of course what's important is standards of living.
- david927 14y ago
  Peter isn't the only one saying this. Even the eminent Alan Kay raises the point: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-inventions-in-computing-since-1980 http://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-in...
  - ippisl 14y ago
    First even Thiel agrees there isn't lack of innovation in computing. Alan Kay asks about big ideas, not about innovation. I'm pretty sure that if you look at research papers you'll find amazing ideas that within a 5/10/30 years time will be important(but we can't tell, not until we worked hard to make them work). Just of the top of my head, there are many potential amazing ideas: look at literature based discovery, alan kay's project that tries to build full os + apps in less than 20KLOC, "naked objects" and meredith patterson's work on parsing and security[1]. [1]http://www.securitytube.net/video/7251 http://www.securitytube.net/video/7251
    - david927 14y ago
      I guess we're disagreeing with what is meant by innovation. For me it means big ideas. Better tires on cars is innovation but it's not satisfying to me. I think Thiel also means big ideas -- hence the 140 character quote. I like your enthusiasm and your list is fantastic. I haven't seen Meredith Patterson's stuff. It looks interesting. But we were also "on the cusp" of curing cancer in the 70's. This is personal, I guess. I've spent an inordinate time on deep research and I've done it on my own. It's frustrating to watch while things like the Kickstarter for T-shirts get drowned in financing while I count pennies. I'll try to be more optimistic but there's nothing wrong with saying, "Let's stop chasing money and start chasing something more. Something bigger. Something better."

ippisl 14y ago

I bet that if you looked at household income and working hours and worker conditions at the beginning of the industrial revolution you wouldn't see great improvement. You've seen that only after the workers movement gotten worker rights. That's to say that those metrics are wrong to measure technological advancement per se. But of course what's important is standards of living.

david927 14y ago
Peter isn't the only one saying this. Even the eminent Alan Kay raises the point: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-inventions-in-computing-since-1980 http://stackoverflow.com/questions/432922/significant-new-in...
- ippisl 14y ago
  First even Thiel agrees there isn't lack of innovation in computing. Alan Kay asks about big ideas, not about innovation. I'm pretty sure that if you look at research papers you'll find amazing ideas that within a 5/10/30 years time will be important(but we can't tell, not until we worked hard to make them work). Just of the top of my head, there are many potential amazing ideas: look at literature based discovery, alan kay's project that tries to build full os + apps in less than 20KLOC, "naked objects" and meredith patterson's work on parsing and security[1]. [1]http://www.securitytube.net/video/7251 http://www.securitytube.net/video/7251
  - david927 14y ago
    I guess we're disagreeing with what is meant by innovation. For me it means big ideas. Better tires on cars is innovation but it's not satisfying to me. I think Thiel also means big ideas -- hence the 140 character quote. I like your enthusiasm and your list is fantastic. I haven't seen Meredith Patterson's stuff. It looks interesting. But we were also "on the cusp" of curing cancer in the 70's. This is personal, I guess. I've spent an inordinate time on deep research and I've done it on my own. It's frustrating to watch while things like the Kickstarter for T-shirts get drowned in financing while I count pennies. I'll try to be more optimistic but there's nothing wrong with saying, "Let's stop chasing money and start chasing something more. Something bigger. Something better."